Outlook 2

The international environment facing Africa has turned decisively negative. GDP in the OECD countries is expected to contract by 4.3 percent in 2009 and to be virtually flat in 2010. Growth in emerging economies is also expected to slow dramatically. Not surprisingly, the outlook for Africa has been adversely affected by the global recession. Economic growth in Africa is expected to be only 2.8 percent in 2009, less than half of the 5.7 percent estimated for 2008.

  • International Environment World GDP grew at 2.2 percent in 2008, down from 3.8 percent in 2007, with growth in OECD countries substantially slower than growth elsewhere.
  • Growth of Aid to AfricaNet ODA to Africa amounted to USD 38.7 billion in 2007, representing 37 percent of total aid. This corresponds to a fall of 18 percent in real terms, mostly due to the end of exceptional debt relief operations.
  • Macroeconomic Performances in Africa In 2008 GDP growth in Africa was 5.7 percent; it was 6.1 percent in 2007. This was, thus, the fifth consecutive year when growth exceeded 5.5 percent. However, the impact of the global economic crisis is expected to slash growth rates to 2.8 percent in 2009, less than half of the average growth rate achieved during the past five years.
  • The Millennium Development Goals: Progress Report Just six years from the deadline set by the international community for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), world reports indicate that with the exception of North Africa, none of the Sub-Saharan African countries is currently on track to attain all of the goals by 2015.
  • Governance and Political Issues On the whole, political and social stabilization has been generally progressing on the continent. However, the administrative capacity of government remains weak, impeding the consolidation of democratic institutions (especially in fragile states); the judicial system still receives little political priority.

A- International Environment

A-1: Growth in the World Economy

A-2: International and Regional Trade

A-3: Exchange Rates

A-4: Raw Material Prices

A-5: Agricultural Products

A-6: Official Development Assistance

B: Macroeconomic Performances in Africa

B-1: Economic Growth

B-2: Inflation

B-3: Public Finances

B-4: Balance of Payments

C: Growth of Aid to Africa

C-1: Progress in Making Aid More Effective

C-2: Foreign Direct Investment

D: The Millennium Development Goals: Progress Report

D-1: Goal 1 – Reducing extreme poverty and hunger by half

D-2: Goal 3 – Eliminating gender disparity

D-3: Goal 4 – Reducing child mortality

D-4: Goal 5 – Improving maternal health

E: Governance and Political Issues

E-1: Conflicts and Political Troubles

E-2: Peace and Security