Nigeria

The government is preparing Nigeria’s Vision 2020 which focuses on diversification of the economy away from oil. Vision 2020 will articulate the government’s goal of placing Nigeria among the top 20 economies in the world. At present the country’s economic structure reflects an undiversified economy that is highly dependent on a capital-intensive oil sector, with a traditional agricultural sector accounting for the bulk of employment. Agriculture was the leading contributor to GDP in 2009, helped by a good harvest. Its share in GDP rose from 33.5% in 2008 to 36.5% in 2009. On the other hand the contribution by the crude petroleum and natural gas sector to GDP fell from 38.2% in 2008 to 32.3% in 2009. The decline was mainly a result of the low oil prices caused by the global financial crisis. Nigeria’s oil reserves are considerable, estimated at about 38 billion barrels.

Other major productive sectors include wholesale and retail, the third largest contributor, accounting for 15.9% of GDP. Other services made up 8.2% of GDP. The manufacturing sector’s contribution was 2.4% in 2009, compared to 2.5% in 2008. Finance and insurance accounted for 1.8% in 2009, compared with 1.6% in 2008. Building and construction accounted for 1.4% in 2009, compared with 1.3% in 2008. The other contributing sectors were hotels and restaurants (0.4%), telecommunications and post (1%), and solid minerals (0.2%).

Agriculture, the leading contributor to GDP, which accounts for over 70% of employment, continues to have problems. It is labour-intensive and productivity is low. Nigeria remains a net importer of agricultural produce, unlike in the 1960s when it was a net exporter. Palm oil, yams, cassava, maize, coconuts, millet and groundnuts are some of the main crops cultivated. Cattle are raised in the northern regions. A number of factors explain the low level of productivity: poor extension services, lack of exposure to modern technology and the relatively small size of farm holdings. Desertification in the north and erosion in the middle belt pose a threat to Nigeria’s agriculture and environmental sustainability. Disease morbidity is a major problem in livestock farming. The government has responded by supplying improved vaccines to farmers. In addition, the depletion of timber stocks is a source of concern.

The manufacturing sector’s small contribution to GDP of only 2.4% reflects the low level of industrialisation of the Nigerian economy. Industrial activity is concentrated in Lagos and, to a lesser extent, other major cities such as Kano, Kaduna, Ibadan, and Port Harcourt. Textiles, beverages, cigarettes, detergents and cement account for the bulk of industrial output. Informal sector activities are also widespread. The government has announced plans to boost domestic industrial production: for example it has introduced a special levy of about USD 3.50 per tonne on cement imports which will be used to fund the establishment of a cement training institute. It has stipulated that all federal government ministries, departments and agencies must use locally made goods for their activities. The aim is to promote patronage of such goods.

A wide range of activities are classified as “other services” including the film industry, which has considerable potential and is a source of employment. Nigerian films now have a relatively large market in other African countries. The government has shown interest in supporting the industry. Tourism is an underdeveloped sector with great potential. Wholesale and retail is dominated by small traders and the restaurant industry thrives in most towns.

With regard to the components of aggregate demand, aggregate consumption decreased by two percentage points in 2009 relative to its 2008 level. Private consumption decreased by 2.4 % relative to its 2008 level and public consumption by 1.4 %. Total investment increased by 6.4 %. Public investment increased by 17.5 % and private investment by 1.1 % compared with 2008. 

 

Fiscal policy in Nigeria is conducted in the context of a three-year Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) using a fiscal rule based on oil prices: government revenues are forecast on the basis of projected prices. Surplus oil revenues (relative to the forecast) are saved in an Excess Crude Account. Past government projections have tended to be overly optimistic, leading to revenue shortfalls and occasioning the need for supplementary budgets. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007 stipulates procedures for formulating, executing and publishing the budget and MTEF. It also limits the overall budget deficit to 3% of GDP.

The global recession has had a negative impact on Nigeria’s fiscal position. The budget balance deteriorated from a surplus of 3.8% in 2008 to a deficit of 5.2% in 2009.  A smaller deficit of 2.8% of GDP is projected for 2010. Total revenues (including grants) fell to 28.1% of GDP in 2009, compared with 33.8 % in 2008.  The decline is due to a drop in oil revenues from 27.4% of GDP in 2008 to 21.4% in 2009. Total revenues are projected to increase slightly to 30.2% in 2010 and oil revenues are projected to increase to 23.6% of GDP. The budget deficits will be financed by domestic borrowing, drawing from the Excess Crude Account and by external financing.

Fiscal policy makers face many challenges, in particular dealing with large subsidy payments to keep electric power supply and petroleum product prices low for consumers. Removal of such subsidies could save billions of dollars of revenue for the government. The government is encouraging private participation in electric power provision which may result in the discontinuation of the subsidies. It has announced plans to deregulate the downstream oil sector to end the subsidies. Some labour unions and civil society groups have threatened to organise mass protests against the plans. In fact, rumours of imminent removal of subsidies led to panic buying of petroleum products in anticipation of price increases.

Another challenge is to improve the government’s relatively weak capacity for project implementation.  For instance, capital expenditure in the first six months of 2009 was only 42.9% of the amount allocated. Only 14% of the amount released for the implementation of power projects and programmes was utilised. It is important to adhere to counter-cyclical policies based on oil prices by saving some of the large oil revenues during booms and spending them during periods of low revenues. The government built up foreign reserves from the current account surplus which was posted in the oil boom years prior to the crisis. These have been used to insulate the economy from the early impact of the current global recession. There is considerable pressure to spend the windfall oil revenues. Supplementary budgets are often hastily prepared when revenues rise above the projected level. Lastly, there is a multiplicity of taxes, in part due to poor co-ordination among the three tiers of government – federal, state and local. Streamlining and reducing the number of taxes paid by investors could encourage investment by making business planning easier, without necessarily leading to a loss of tax revenue. 

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to rely on its monetary targeting framework to pursue its primary objective of monetary and price stability. The CBN maintained the use of open market operations, adjustments of the monetary policy rate and cash reserve requirements as well as discount window operations as the major tools of monetary policy. The broad money supply (M2) grew at an estimated 22% in 2009, following 31% growth in 2008. Domestic credit was dominated by credit to the private sector with net credit to government being negative. To encourage bank lending to boost economic activity in the face of the contractionary effects of the global recession, the CBN reduced the central bank discount rate and also the bank liquidity and cash ratios. In addition the CBN also resorted to direct control measures such as interest rate caps and reintroduction of foreign exchange controls.

The CBN continued to undertake extensive reform of the National Payment System. This effort has culminated in the introduction of institutional arrangements, operational mechanisms, interrelated information-technology infrastructure improvements (including the use of electronic payments systems) and instruments that are gaining wide acceptance among consumers in the banking industry.  The National Payment System is expected to serve as a platform for supporting the integration of the Nigerian wholesale and retail payments system into that of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The reforms will be pursued as outlined in the Financial System Strategy 2020. These include the implementation of key initiatives that will drive the use of electronic payments: government supplier payments, person-to-person trade, salary and bill payments, business and individual taxes, and securities settlement.

Plans are under way for the adoption of common year-end accounting framework and international financial reporting standards for all banks. The aim is to assure the integrity and comparability of both financial reports and data. The CBN has reviewed the Contingency Planning Framework for Systemic Distress in banks. Also, a credit bureau was introduced.

Central bank supervision and monitoring of commercial banks intensified in 2009. The CBN adopted various approaches, including regular appraisal and review of banks’ periodic returns, spot checks, special investigations and risk-based supervision, among others. The Resident Examiners’ Programme was introduced to provide real-time continuous evaluation of the risks posed by banks’ operations.  Resident examiners were deployed to all 24 of the country’s deposit money banks to monitor and supervise their activities on a daily basis. As a result of these exercises the CBN was able to determine that 10 of Nigeria’s 24 banks were in “a grave situation”. The banks’ financial distress was in some cases the result of losses from excessive lending to the energy sector and the decline of the stock market. The banks’ managers were replaced, and approximately USD 4 billion injected to bolster the banks’ capital base. The CBN has published guidelines stipulating that no commercial bank will be allowed to have a market share of over 20%. The aim is to encourage banks to increase lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and farmers. However, the shake-up of the banking system may have the unintended consequence of achieving the opposite effect, at least in the short run. Banks have reacted by seeking safety in government bonds, resulting in a fall in yields. 

 

Nigeria’s foreign trade is dominated by oil which accounts for 95% of the total value of exports. Oil is the main petroleum product exported, followed by liquefied natural gas.  Successive governments have highlighted the importance of diversifying the export base, but in reality progress has been slow. Imports comprise mainly capital goods, raw materials and consumer non-durables. The United States is Nigeria’s main trading partner, purchasing nearly half of Nigeria’s oil exports. China is the leading source of Nigerian imports.  Nigeria is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional grouping of 15 West African states. Trade within the region is limited, as member countries’ exports and imports do not provide a basis for large-scale regional trade: member countries are generally exporters of primary products and importers of manufactured goods.

A current account surplus of 11% of GDP was recorded in 2009, compared with a current account surplus of 21% of GDP in 2008. The decline in the current account surplus was mainly due to a decline in petroleum export revenues as a result of the fall in oil prices. The surplus is expected to rise to 11.8% of GDP as oil prices rise and production in the Niger Delta region picks up following the ceasefire announcement. Factor income was minus 8.1% of GDP. Negative factor income has been the norm over the years, reflecting the repatriation of profits by multinational oil corporations. Current transfers, dominated by remittances from Nigerians in the diaspora, were 10.9 % of GDP.

The business environment, as gauged by the World Bank Doing Business index, appears to have deteriorated in 2009 relative to 2008. Nigeria ranked 125^th out of 183 countries in the 2010 ranking (which covers the period June 2008 – May 2009) compared to 120^th out of 180 in the 2009 ranking.

The relatively low ranking reflects a number of challenges to doing business in Nigeria. Infrastructure, especially roads and electricity supply, are in a poor state.  A multiplicity of taxes is levied on business activity. Even though Nigeria is a major oil producer, it imports the bulk of its refined petroleum and kerosene. The distribution of petroleum products is problematic: consumers sometimes have to queue overnight to purchase them. Electric power supply is unreliable and businesses have to rely on generators with costly fuel consumption. Peace in the Niger Delta region is crucial for future private sector development, given the perception of insecurity generated by the conflict.

There is an urgent need for reform of the public sector in Nigeria. Corruption continues to be a major problem. Nigeria’s ranking on the global Transparency International Corruption Perception Index declined from 121^th out of 180 in 2008 to 130^th out of 180 in 2009. Another major issue is the question of whether Nigeria’s state-run refinery should be privatised and petroleum prices deregulated, which could encourage private investment in the industry and help end the country’s dependence on imported fuel. The government pays fuel-marketing firms the difference between the regulated price and imported price of fuel. However, allegations of irregularities in such payments are widespread.

Some progress has been made in improving governance in the public sector. The Central Bank of Nigeria has earned widespread commendation for its tough decisive action to restore confidence in the country’s banks after the global crisis left some of them badly exposed.  The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Nigeria’s version of an anti-corruption commission, has been trying to recover some of the estimated USD 8 billion owed to the banks.

Some states are also taking action against corruption. Bayelsa, a state in the Niger Delta region, has invited outside accountants and advisers to audit its finances. The audit has uncovered many irregularities including 4 000 ghost or non-existent workers. The state governor hopes that the audit will reduce the state salary bill by 20%.

The quality of Nigeria’s infrastructure is generally poor. President Yar’Adua’s administration has promised to address the problem by encouraging joint ventures with the private sector. The government has announced or undertaken a number of projects to try to modernise Nigeria’s infrastructure, but the results have generally been modest at best. The Chinese have been contracted to build a 1 315 kilometre standard-gauge double-track railway line from Lagos in the southwest to Kano in the north.

Electricity is provided by the state-owned Power Holding Company of Nigeria and several independent power companies provide thermal as well as hydroelectric power. However, the electric power system operates well below capacity. The major problems include deterioration of infrastructure, a poor distribution network and theft of supply through illegal connections. The government has announced plans to double Nigeria’s electricity generating capacity to 6 000 megawatts. It has also announced plans to boost the production of coal, of which Nigeria has considerable reserves, for power generation

The telecommunications sector is liberalised and has been a major recipient of private foreign investment, mostly in the mobile telephone subsector. The main provider of fixed line telephone service, Nigerian Telecommunications (Nitel), has been privatised. However, fixed-line connections are in short supply, a constraint to the expansion of Internet services. Some Internet service providers use satellite delivery systems which do not require fixed-line telephones. In addition, the number of Internet users is now estimated at well over 10 million.

Nigeria’s ports serve not only the country but also its landlocked neighbour, Niger. The government is reforming the customs service to reduce the time it takes to clear goods through customs from the current average rate of two weeks to two days.

Nigeria is well endowed with oil and other natural resources. Production capacity of petroleum products is estimated to be around three million barrels a day but actual production is well below that level, at around two million barrels or less. The insurgency in the Niger Delta region has been the main reason for the shortfall, which has led to Nigeria producing less than its OPEC quota in recent years. The government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), engages in mainly joint-venture equity participation with the multinational oil companies that account for the bulk of oil production. However, the NNPC is often unable to meet its obligations to contribute to maintenance and investment in new capital. The Yar’Adua administration has announced plans to stop cash payments to the joint ventures, preferring that they raise funds on international markets. The NNPC has also been engaging in production-sharing contracts (PSC) where the oil companies fully cover exploration costs and recover their investment when production starts. The government has announced plans to use natural gas to try to solve Nigeria’s electric power needs.

Other mineral resources include granite, marble, limestone, tin, coal, iron ore, lead, zinc and gold. However, output is generally low even though deposits are large. The government has identified the solid minerals sector as an engine of growth in its National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). It intends to conduct new geological surveys to identify commercially viable mineral deposits. The government also intends to support informal small-scale mining and boost its potential as a source of employment and poverty alleviation.

Nigeria is a member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) which supports improved governance of natural resources to ensure that they benefit the people of the countries where they are exploited. The EITI provides a standard for firms to publish what they pay and for governments to disclose what they receive. The second set of audits for the Nigeria EITI chapter, the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), was published in 2009.

The sources of public revenue in Nigeria are proceeds from the sale of crude oil, taxes, levies, fines, tolls, penalties and charges. Oil revenues are the main source of public revenue, accounting for about 80% to 85% of the total. In the period 2001-09, oil revenues averaged 27% of GDP while tax revenues averaged 6.4%. Oil revenues have been volatile, ranging from 35.6% in 2001 to 19.6% in 2009 when oil prices dropped as a result of the global recession. The volatility of revenues is largely driven by international oil price volatility and fluctuations in domestic production. The conflict in the Niger Delta region has been a major factor behind fluctuations in domestic production.

 The main types of tax revenue generated by private companies are:

-          company income tax: imposed on the profits of all corporate entities except those engaged in oil and gas extraction.

-          petroleum profits tax: imposed on the profits of all corporate entities deriving income from oil and gas operations in Nigeria.

-          education tax: imposed on all corporate entities registered in Nigeria.

-          technology tax: imposed on selected corporate entities (telecommunication companies, Internet service providers, pension managers, banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions within a specified turnover range) to support development of technology infrastructure and capacity.

 Individual taxes are:

-          personal income tax;

-          development tax: flat charge imposed on every taxable person within a state.

Transactions taxes include:

-          value-added tax (VAT), capital gains tax (CGT), stamp duty, excise duty, import duty and export duty.

 

Nigeria has a federal revenue system reflecting its system of government which comprises three tiers – federal, state and local. The federal constitution specifies the taxes that each tier of government can impose and collect. The federal government has ultimate authority in tax collection. A seemingly large number of institutions are involved in tax administration at the federal level. The presidency appoints heads of federal tax agencies and oversees overall federal tax administration. The National Economic Council advises the president on economic matters including tax policy. The Federal Executive Council is the highest executive decision-making body and has authority over tax policy. The Federal Ministry of Finance is responsible for initiating proposals for preparing tax legislation at the federal level. The judiciary is empowered to interpret tax laws and adjudicate on tax matters. The Federal Inland Revenue Service and the Nigeria Customs Service are responsible for the administration of tax laws and revenue collection. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) generates revenues from joint-venture equity participation with multinational oil companies. The Joint Tax Board is responsible for harmonising the relationship between tax authorities at the federal and state levels. The National Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission proposes the remuneration of political and judicial office-holders, and also advises on the allocation of revenues among the three tiers of government.

There is considerable potential for mobilising public revenues in Nigeria. In particular oil output can be increased to its potential level if peace in the Niger Delta is assured. The fiscal regime varies with the institutional arrangements for oil production. Such arrangements are dominated by onshore joint ventures and production-sharing contracts (PSC). Scope may exist for increasing government revenues by assessing the fiscal implications of these arrangements.

Another issue is the apparent duplication of institutions involved in revenue generation even at the federal level. The rationalisation of such institutions could improve the architecture for revenue mobilisation. Also, many tax laws are obsolete and need to be updated. Multiple taxation across the three tiers of government is another problem. Paying taxes is viewed as a major constraint to doing business in Nigeria. In the 2010 World Bank Doing Business Report, Nigeria ranked 132^nd out of 183 countries with regard to the ease of paying taxes. Multiple taxation partly accounts for this low ranking. Furthermore, businesses also point to the laborious process of filing tax returns. They are sometimes forced to hire “tax consultants” who may defraud their clients of funds intended to settle tax obligations.  In addition, information to taxpayers on tax compliance requirements is inadequate, creating room for uncertainty and loop-holes. Corruption on the part of tax-collecting institutions is an issue. Other problems include the absence of clearly specified guidelines for the operation of the various tax authorities, and obsolete tax legislation. Lastly, heavy reliance on oil revenues has resulted in complacency in mobilising tax and other revenues. The sharp fall in oil revenues as a result of the global recession has brought a sense of urgency to the need to mobilise other sources of revenue.

The government has undertaken a number of initiatives to address the above problems. It has conducted an audit of ministries’, departments’ and agencies’ finances to ensure better collection and remittance to the Treasury. The government has also been supporting the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) to promote efficiency in revenue collection. It is also trying to enforce the provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility Act which requires federal government, corporations, agencies and government-owned companies to establish a general reserve fund whereby 20% of operating surplus will be saved with the balance of 80% remitted into the Federal Government Consolidated Revenue Fund. The government has published a Petroleum Industry Bill, which includes plans to restructure the state-run oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is widely perceived as inefficient.  The restructuring should increase transparency and allow the NNPC to raise financing on the capital markets. The government has proposed a new National Tax Policy (NTP) which seeks to provide a set of clear guidelines, rules and modus operandi that will regulate Nigeria’s tax system.

The NTP seeks to enhance a government revenue alternative base outside oil and gas,
promote fiscal accountability, facilitate economic growth and development, and provide the government with stable resources for the provision of public goods and services. Finally, the government has created a solid minerals ministry to promote the exploitation of solid minerals.

The conflict in the Niger Delta region has been a major political and economic challenge for Nigeria. Armed militants have been attacking the oil industry, sabotaging installations and kidnapping foreign workers for ransom. At times the conflict reduced Nigeria’s oil production by as much as a third, pushing up the world price of crude oil and hurting government revenues. The militants have pointed to environmental pollution by oil extraction firms and widespread poverty among local communities as the causes for their grievances. Criminals have also taken advantage of the conflict to kidnap foreign workers for a ransom.

Prospects for a lasting solution improved in 2009 when the government struck a deal with the militants that could lead to the end of the conflict. Subsequently, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Delta (MEND), the main umbrella group for the militants, declared a ceasefire. Thousands of militants have surrendered their weapons and registered to participate in a reintegration program.

To date, peace in the Niger Delta has proved elusive with several past ceasefires breaking down. However, there is widespread optimism that this deal could succeed, given President Yar’Adua’s personal commitment. President Yar’Adua has also asked the National Assembly to approve legislation that will allocate 10% of Nigeria’s equity in oil joint ventures in the Niger Delta region to local communities. An implication of this proposal is that oil revenues to other states would be reduced, which may prove to be an obstacle to the passage of the proposed legislation. The government has also announced a series of projects involving the construction of schools, hospitals and roads in the Niger Delta region as part of a national fiscal stimulus package. President Yar’Adua has created ministry of Niger Delta affairs to co-ordinate state and federal spending in the region. A major challenge will be to ensure that funds allocated to the Niger Delta region actually reach the intended beneficiaries and do not become another avenue for corruption.  

The year 2010 is expected to be full of political activity as campaign gets underway for the 2011 presidential, legislative and state-level elections. President Yar’Adua is eligible to run for a second term in office. However, he was hospitalised abroad for a heart condition, raising concerns about his fitness. President Yar’Adua has returned to Nigeria but his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, continues to serve as acting president. Finally, Nigeria will play a role in global decision making. In November 2009 it took up a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council.

Nigeria has relatively poor human development indicators, in spite of its rich endowment with natural resources.  The country ranked 158^th out of 182 on the United Nations Development Programme 2009 Human Development Index which is based on 2007 data. Life expectancy was only 48 years. Rural-urban and gender disparities in human development indicators are pronounced. The adult literacy rate is about 64% for women and 80% for men. The combined gross enrolment ratio in education is 48% for women, compared with 58% for men.

The government has taken a number of steps towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and promoting human development. In 2006 the federal government adopted MDG-based development planning to channel resources quickly for meeting the MDGs. It established the Virtual Poverty Fund (VPF) which pools debt relief resources to be used to finance MDG-related activities. The federal government has set up the presidential committee on the assessment and monitoring of the MDGs in Nigeria. It has also established the Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on the Millennium Development Goals (OSSAP-MDGs). The office is mandated to act as secretariat to the presidential committee on the MDGs, develop a coherent approach for the achievement of the MDGs and facilitate the design of appropriate systems to tag and track debt relief-funded MDG expenditure.

In 2004 the federal government launched the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) as an economic reform and poverty reduction strategy. State and local governments have declared their support for NEEDS, and have also come up with their own version, SEEDS and LEEDS (the S and L standing for state and local). The government has published Vision 2020 which envisages Nigeria among the world’s top 20 economies by 2020. It has also published a seven-point agenda aimed at promoting sustainable growth in the real sector; improvement of infrastructure; human capital development (health and education); security, law and order; combating corruption and conflict through promotion of equitable and sustainable regional development. Vision 2020 and the agenda ultimately seek to reduce poverty and promote human development in Nigeria.

In spite of these initiatives, Nigeria is not on course to achieve the first of the Millennium Development Goals – halving poverty – by 2015. The total poverty head count rose from 27.2% in 1980 to 65.6% in 1996, and declined to about 50% in 2007. To meet the poverty target for 2015, the poverty rate would have had to fall to 28.78% in 2007.  Nigeria is one of the most unequal societies in the world with a Gini index of about 0.49. Such inequality is also widely reflected in poverty and human development indicators. The poverty incidence has been consistently higher in rural areas than urban areas while wide disparity occurs in poverty trend across regions. To combat poverty, government polices will need to be focused on increased productivity in the agricultural sector and investment in infrastructure, especially in rural areas. 

Performance on the second goal – achieving universal primary education – is on course. Net enrolment ratio in primary education has increased from eight in every 10 eligible children in 2004 to nine in 2007. The literacy rate of 15-24 year olds also rose from six out of 10 students to eight during the same period. The success was bolstered by the implementation of free and compulsory universal basic education, improved policy environment and better intergovernmental coordination in the sector. Revenues generated from debt relief financed in-service training of 145 000 teachers, the recruitment of 45 000 new teachers and the provision of primary school facilities (classrooms, toilets, instructional materials). Also, the Girls Education Project (GEP), a joint government effort supported by UNICEF/Department For International Development (United Kingdom), has been scaled up with the debt relief resources.

Some progress towards the third goal – promoting gender equality and empowering women – has been made.  In particular, there was a sustained increase in girls’ primary school enrolment from 2000 to 2007. Also in secondary schools, a steady increase in the enrolment of girls was observed from 2005 when about nine girls to every 10 boys were in school.  However, inequality endures in various aspects of life. In particular, the proportion of girls enrolled in primary, secondary and tertiary education is still lower than that of boys (about eight girls to every 10 boys). Women are still grossly under-represented at the highest decision making levels, such as the National Assembly. Although there has been some improvement – from three women to 100 men in 2000 to about eight women to 100 men in 2007 – the rate is still low relative to the target of 30 women to every 100 men recommended by the Beijing Platform for Action which Nigeria has been adopted.

Nigeria is not on course to achieve the fourth goal – reducing child mortality. The infant mortality rate rose from 81 per 1 000 live births in 2000 to 110 per 1 000 live births in 2005-06. The under-five mortality rate also increased from 184 per 1 000 live births in 2000 to 201 per 1 000 live births in 2007. The deterioration has occurred in spite of the introduction of a number of initiatives to reduce child mortality such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) Strategy, Integrated Maternal Newborn and Child Health Strategy (IMNCHS), Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR), intensive capacity building for health workers and Community Resource Persons (CORPs), and the Integrated Child Survival and Development Strategic Framework and Plan of Action (2005-09).

The fifth goal – improving maternal health – represents a major challenge for Nigeria. In 2007, the maternal mortality rate was 828 deaths per 100 000 live births in rural areas, and 531 deaths per 100 000 live births in urban areas. A rate no higher than 440 per 100 000 live births for 2007 was required for Nigeria to be considered to be on course to attain the goal of halving maternal mortality by 2015. Poor attitudes to antenatal and postnatal health care and to reproductive health, and low quality of health care delivery, account for the high incidence of maternal mortality in Nigeria. Policies such as the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), the Safe Motherhood Programme, the development of the National Vital Registration System, and the Making Pregnancy Safer Initiative, appear to have had only limited impact.

With regard to the sixth goal – combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases – progress has been made on HIV and AIDS in particular. The rate of HIV and AIDS dropped from about five in every 100 Nigerians in 2003 to about four in 2005. Among pregnant women aged 15-49  the rate has also declined over the last few years (from six out of every 100 pregnant women aged 15-49  in 2001 to five in 2003 and four in 2005). The role of the National Agency for the Control of HIV and AIDS (NACA) and development partners – implementation of a national response, creation of high level awareness and advocacy, widespread distribution of condoms – has been critical to the progress realised to date. The AIDS orphans programme has been launched with funding from the Clinton Foundation and debt relief resources.

Nigeria’s rich environmental resource base is being undermined by deforestation (3.5% per year), erosion, desertification, and pollution from gas flaring and oil. Attainment of the seventh goal – ensuring environmental sustainability – is therefore doubtful. The proportion of land area covered by forests fell from 14.6% in 2000 to 12.6% in 2007 against the target of 20% by 2015.

With regard to goal 8 – developing a global partnership for development – Nigeria is actively participating in a number of regional initiatives such as the African Union (AU), the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The country also belongs to a number of bilateral and multilateral trade pacts such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the African Caribbean Pacific-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (ACP-EU EPA). Nigeria has benefited from debt relief and cancellation which led to its exit from the London and Paris Clubs. Development partners support a wide range of development initiatives in the country.