Public protests, violence and conflicts

Some of the events of late 2010 and early 2011 can be interpreted as the results of longer processes at work over previous years. Intensifying civil protests characterised 2010, pointing to the high level of economic and other grievances felt by many African populations. In September 2010, large protests against the high cost of living paralysed Mozambique’s capital, Maputo, for more than a week. Given the steep increase in food and fuel prices (and their large share in average African consumption baskets) that began in the second half of 2010 and has not come to a halt so far, the potential for further public protest in 2011 is high.

In 2010 the measure of demonstrations as used in this report reached its highest level since 2006 and its second highest since the start of the time series in 1996 (see Figure 5.1). Strikes in the sample were driven more strongly by larger events than in previous years. There were significantly more strikes with more than 5 000 participants than in previous years,² pointing to increased social pressures and civil societies’ capacity to mobilise. These large protests, and especially the recent revolutions in North Africa, also bear witness to the important role of easily accessible new media and communication technology as tools of social organisation.

Yet 2010 was also a year of decreasing violence. The measure of violence by non-government actors was much lower in 2010 than in 2009 (for the 25-country sample). The combination of decreasing violence and increasing public protests points to a positive trend of more peaceful and democratic expressions of demands that bodes well for Africa’s development. The expression of public dissent through strikes and demonstrations in order to claim improved public services, better living conditions or social change can be an important driver of development.

Violence between communities can erupt for a host of reasons. Nigeria suffered from severe confrontations over access to land and inter-religious conflicts (Christian and Muslim) in the region of Jos in early 2010, costing between 1 000 and 1 500 lives. In April 2011, violence erupted in the north of the country  after the presidential elections, which were won by the incumbent president M. Jonathan, a Christian from southern Nigeria against M. Buhari, a Muslim from the northern part of the country. In Egypt a January 2010 attack on Copts left seven dead and was followed by large protests and in December, similar protests erupted after a bomb killed 21 in a Coptic church. One would note, however, that Muslims and Copts were united in the peaceful uprising against the authoritarian regime of Mubarak.

To obtain a full picture, these observations of post-election violence and strife between communities must be put in the wider electoral context. Of the 13 legislative and presidential elections held in 2010, only the one in Côte d’Ivoire was followed by large-scale violence. Violence around other elections was of minor scale and there are many positive examples of the electoral process on the continent (see below).