Government responses and political freedom

Despite an increase in public protests, government responses in the form of violence and restrictive political measures (bans of press, demonstrations, etc.) continued their downward trend from 2009 and were much less aggressive than in 2008. The measure of violence exerted by government forces was 30% lower in 2010 than in 2009. Arrests of protesters, journalists and members of civil society and the opposition, on the other hand, were up by 20% from 2009. Although still far below (65%) their peak in 2008, the higher number of arrests in 2010 suggests that governments turned to arrests as a means of reaction to increasing public protests. As Figure 5.2 shows, in terms of the indicator of political hardening, which combines various means of government oppression into a single variable, 2010 was the year with the most relaxed stance of governments since the beginning of the series in 1996. 

The observation of a softer government stance in 2010 has to be put in the wider context of political and civil liberties in Africa, however. As Table 5.1 shows, the Political Freedom Index (PFI) from Freedom House, which measures political rights and civil liberties in 2010,³ classifies 9 African countries as “free”, 24 as “partly free” and 21 as “not free”. Due to its transition from military rule to a democratically elected government, Guinea achieved a change in classification to “partly free” from “not free” in previous years. Across categories the PFI counts improvements but also setbacks. In addition to Guinea, the countries of Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania saw an improvement of either political or civil rights, while another four countries (Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Ethiopia) experienced a worsening. As Table 5.1 shows,  Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Côte d´Ivoire, all of which experienced revolts in the first months of 2011 had very low values for civil liberties and political rights in 2010 and were classified as “not free”.

Reporters Without Borders (2010) annually compiles a Press Freedom Index, reflecting “the degree of freedom that journalists and news organisations enjoy in each country, and the efforts made by the authorities to respect and ensure respect for this freedom.” In Africa 21 countries improved their rating during 2010, compared to 22 where the situation for the press worsened. With Namibia, Cape Verde, Ghana, Mali, South Africa and Tanzania, six African countries achieved a rating in the “satisfactory” category, as did many OECD member countries such as, for example, France, the United Kingdom and the United States. At the other end of the scale, 7 African countries (Eritrea, Sudan, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Tunisia, Somalia, Libya) fall among the 20 countries at the bottom of the ranking. Tunisia and Libya, two of these seven low-ranked countries, are at the centre of the public revolts that have unfolded in North Africa.

Looking back, the political hardening index shows that 2008 was the year with the “hardest” stance of government repression since the beginning of the series in 1996. Comparison of Figures 5.1 and 5.2 for 2008 shows a spike in government oppression on the one hand and a drop in civil protests on the other against the backdrop of a spike in food prices.⁴ Assuming that such a sharp rise in food prices would cause significant grievances⁵ and pressures leading to public protests, the figures’ revealing of the opposite, namely, lower levels of public protests than in adjacent years, potentially indicates a tough and preventive stance by governments. In 2008, nine governments out of the sample of 25 countries banned strikes and demonstrations in 26 instances, compared to five countries and 12 instances in 2007 and only three countries and 3 instances of bans in 2009. Thus, given that food prices may remain high, Africa might experience similar bouts of strong and preventive government responses to expected protests in the coming years.