Electoral processes

In 2010, presidential elections took place in nine countries: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Togo. In addition, parliamentary elections occurred in seven countries: Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Mauritius, São Tomé and Principe, Sudan and Tanzania. Two referenda also took place, in Kenya and Madagascar. In turn, 2011 has already witnessed five presidential elections (Benin, Central African Republic, Niger, Nigeria and Uganda) and five parliamentary elections (Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Nigeria and Uganda) and will be Africa’s record election year, with a total of 28 elections at the national level. On top of this, two key referenda have already taken place in the first quarter of 2011 (see Table 5.2). In January the referendum in Southern Sudan confirmed the separation of Southern Sudan from the North. In March the Egyptian population voted in the first constitutional referendum after the January and February revolution against the Mubarak regime.

The largely peaceful presidential election in Guinea was the first democratic election in Guinea since independence in 1958 and put an end to the institutional crisis generated by the 2008 coup d’état which had followed the death of President Lansana Conté. After Moussa Dadis Camara, leader of the military junta, left the country after being injured in an assassination attempt in late 2009, then vice president Sékouba Konaté took over the government and focused on the organisation of presidential elections. Konaté himself did not run in the elections. After several postponements of the second round of elections, Alpha Condé won against Cellou Dalein Diallo with 52.52% of the vote. Although the elections were largely successful, violence linked to the two rounds of elections resulted in several hundred injured and between five and ten killed protesters.

The other African presidential election that brought about a leadership change took place in Comoros in November and December 2010. With its electoral law passed in 2005 and first democratic elections in 2006, Comoros successfully embraced democracy after a legacy of military dictatorship. As a federation of the three islands Anjouan, Mohéli and Grande Comore, the federal presidency rotates between these islands every four years. In 2010 it was Mohéli’s turn to provide a president. In the first round, people in Mohéli voted in a primary election. In the second round, voters from all three islands elected Ikililou Dhoinine as president from among the top three candidates of the first round. The elected president Dhoinine will take office on 26 May 2011, the final day of the official period of transition.  

In Africa, opposition parties often face difficulties in accessing public space for campaign and debate in preparation for elections, which results in biased democratic competition. For example, Ethiopia was downgraded from “partly free” to “not free” by Freedom House because of “massive repression that accompanied national elections” (Freedom House, 2011). The ruling party and its allies won 99% of the official vote, confirming this assessment. Rwanda and Burundi also posed concerns “due to heightened repression in the run-up to national elections” (ibid.). In both countries the incumbent presidents were confirmed in office with results of over 90%. Moreover, both countries experienced incidences of violence around election time. In Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré has been ruling since a bloody coup in 1987. Among claims of widespread fraud, Compaoré was re-elected with 80.2% of the vote in 2010, almost exactly the same result as five years earlier. In early 2011 the capital Ouagadougou has been the site of large, at times violent protests by civilians and military. Egypt’s parliamentary elections, which resulted in a 95% vote for Mubarak’s ruling party, were, in hindsight, a clear measure of the repressiveness of the government against which the people revolted in 2011.

In Côte d’Ivoire, after six postponements since 2005, two rounds of presidential elections took place on 21 October and 28 November. For the first time, the country’s three principal political opponents (the incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo, and Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bédié who were prime minister and president before the coup d’état in 2002) faced each other in the elections. In the second round, Ouattara won against Gbagbo with 54.1% of the votes, according to the Independent Electoral Commission. In response the Constitutional Council declared the results invalid. Subsequently, each candidate declared himself winner and rightful president. The international community, including the United Nations, AU, ECOWAS, the European Union and the United States have affirmed their support for Ouattara and called on Gbagbo to step down, which he refused to do. After the failure of several mediation attempts by ECOWAS and the AU, in March heavy fights broke out between the supporters of Ouattara and Gbagbo. Rebel troops took control of the capital and arrested Gbagbo on April 11. Ouattara has since assumed the presidency. UN and French troops had intervened in the fights by shelling positions of Gbagbo’s troops to prevent the use of heavy weaponry against civilians.

In terms of referenda, Kenya’s peaceful constitutional referendum on 4 August 2010 and the citizens’ affirmative vote for a new constitution that had been supported by the two main opposition parties mark great progress after the 2008 post-election violence. Kenya’s post-election violence also spawned significant progress for the role of the International Criminal Court (ICC, founded in 1998) in prosecuting election-related violence. In a case without international precedents, in December 2010 the ICC named six individuals against whom it will start prosecution, including two cabinet ministers and the head of Kenya's civil service. Although the Kenyan parliament responded with an overwhelming vote for a recommendation to leave the ICC, so far the country co-operates. The six suspects followed a summons to The Hague on 7 April 2011. Given continued incidences of election-related violence in Africa, the ICC’s role in the Kenyan case will be of great importance for the whole continent.

2011 will be a record election year in Africa with a total of 28 elections at the national level. In the first four months there have been already five presidential elections (Benin, Central African Republic, Niger, Nigeria and Uganda) and five parliamentary elections (Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Nigeria and Uganda). Most of these elections were relatively peaceful with the exception of Nigeria where, as mentioned above, violence erupted after the presidential election.

In addition to the elections, two key referenda have already taken place in the first quarter of 2011. In January the referendum in Southern Sudan decided the separation of Southern Sudan from the North. Despite widespread fears of violence, this historic vote proceeded smoothly between 9 and 15 January, and international observers commended it as free and fair. Of Southern Sudanese voters, 98.83% voted for independence from Northern Sudan, which will come into effect on 9 July 2011. The referendum had been among the outcomes of the 2005 peace agreement ending the civil war between Northern and Southern Sudan.

After the revolution against the Mubarak regime in January and February, in March the Egyptian population voted in the first constitutional referendum. In this first referendum in North Africa brought about by a popular uprising, 77.27% of voters approved constitutional reforms, including a limitation on the presidency to at most two four-year terms, judicial supervision of elections, a commission to draft a new constitution following the parliamentary election, and easier access to presidential elections by candidates. The referendum will be followed by new parliamentary elections during the second half of 2011. Presidential elections had been planned for 2011, but following the revolution they will most likely be postponed to 2012.

In Tunisia, following the revolution and departure of former President Ben Ali after 23 years in power, the interim government announced elections of a council of representatives on 24 July 2011 to rewrite the constitution. Once elected, the constitutional council could either appoint a new government or ask the current executive to carry on until presidential or parliamentary elections are held (BBC, March 2011).

In Niger, the presidential election ended peacefully after the second round on 12 March 2011 with the victory of Mahamadou Issoufou, who had won 58% of the vote. The successful election ended the constitutional crisis that been continuing since 2009 when then president Mamadou Tandja continued to stay in office despite the end of his official term. In February 2010, a military junta under the label “Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy” had taken power through a coup d’état and the capture of President Tandja.

Benin’s presidential elections of 13 March 2011 went about peacefully and were considered “free and fair” by the AU’s observer mission.⁶ Incumbent Boni Yayi won a second term with 53% of the vote. The national electoral commission confirmed this result after a short period of heated protest of fraud by runner-up Houngbedji.

Both the Central African Republic and Uganda witnessed smooth general elections that confirmed incumbents as was generally expected. Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda for 25 years and was re-elected with 68% of the vote. In his second electoral victory, François Bozizé has been reaffirmed as president of the Central African Republic with 64% of the vote after having acceded to power as leader of a rebel army in 2003.