In 2008, growth was driven by the commodity-price boom, which peaked at mid-year and had clearly collapsed by the end of the year, accompanied by strong growth in private investment. Growing conditions in the agricultural sector were also generally favourable. Countries were beginning to have problems with controlling inflation, but, by and large, were continuing to reap the benefits of sound macroeconomic policies. As in previous years, oil exporters fared better than oil importers. All countries had to cope with higher prices of food and fertilisers. Thus, the gap in GDP growth rates between the two groups of countries widened to two percentage points. Growth would have been somewhat higher for the oil importing countries were it not for the energy crisis in South Africa and the post-election civil unrest in Kenya.


In 2008, GDP growth was particularly strong in net oil-exporting countries, at 6.6 per cent, down only slightly from the exceptionally strong 6.8 per cent registered in 2007 largely due to the increase in oil prices and increases in production in a number of countries, together with increased public and private investment. However, the growth differential between these and net oil-importing countries widened from 1.4 percentage points in 2007 to a full two percentages points in 2008 with average GDP growth in the latter of 4.6 per cent in 2008, down considerably from the 5.4 per cent registered in 2007.

The contrast with the growth projected for 2009 is striking. Growth is expected to be markedly lower in both groups. However, the impact of the global crisis is expected to be felt more strongly in the oil-exporting countries (and mineral exporters) than in more diversified economies and in those exporting certain agricultural commodities such as beverages. Thus, the net oil importers can expect a GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2009 compared to 2.4 per cent for the net oil exporters. A major factor accounting for the slowdown of growth in the oil exporters is the assumption that the African members of OPEC (Angola, Algeria, Libya and Nigeria) fully respect the agreement reached within that organisation to reduce production quotas in an attempt to sustain oil prices at levels somewhat above those assumed in this report. Our assumption is that the quota reductions will translate on average into a reduction of production of about 8 per cent for these four countries.

GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2010 when the average real GDP growth rate for the continent as a whole is expected to be 4.5 per cent, with net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries growing at the same pace.

These forecasts are based on a number of plausible but somewhat optimistic assumptions, suggesting that they are subject to significant downside risk such as a more severe and prolonged international economic recession than expected, and greater than expected falls in aid, remittances, capital and trade flows. Apart from assuming a resumption of moderate growth in the global economy in 2010, they also assume that oil prices rebound to USD 50 per barrel in 2009 and USD 55 in 2010; that growing conditions in agriculture will be favourable in 2009 and 2010; that oil output of OPEC members will increase by about 3 per cent in 2010; that no new regional conflicts having significant macroeconomic impacts emerge; and that the worsening fiscal balances and current-account balances forecast for many of the net oil-importing countries (and a few net oil-exporting countries) will be fully financed. Thus, the continued implementation of debt-relief agreements for a number of the HIPC countries that began in 2006 will be particularly helpful.