1. See in particular Goldstein et al. (2006), UNCTAD (2010a), UN-OSAA (2010) and AfDB (forthcoming).
  2. See Kharas (2010) for an analysis of the rise of the middle class in developing countries.
  3. The striking discrepancies in FDI data reported by different sources give a sense of the difficulties related to the analysis of FDI flows: MOFCOM reports USD 390.3 million in 2007 Chinese OFDI flows to Nigeria; the Nigerian Investment Promotion Council reports for the same year inflows from China of USD 43.4 million. Even data coming from different Chinese are contradictory: Deborah Brautigam points out that Chinese official OFDI stock in Nigeria as reported by MOFCOM amounts to USD 795.91 million in 2008 although the Chinese Economic Counsellor speaks of USD 7.24 billion. (Brautigam Blog China in Africa: The Real Story: www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2010/02/chinese-investment-in-africa-whats-real.html)
  4. For instance, the Indian Railways — Rites (Rail India Technical and Economic Services) and Ircon — signed an agreement with Sudan Railways for total development of the Sudanese railway system. In 2004 Bharat Heavy Electricity Ltd (BHEL) signed a contract to build a 500 MW thermal power project in Sudan costing USD 457 million. The ICSA (India) Ltd. has signed an agreement with Sudan’s National Electricity Corporation for the execution of a turnkey project of USD 139.95 million (2006).
  5. This (USD 10 million) threshold has been chosen empirically to illustrate the spread of the corresponding distribution. USD 10 million is equivalent to USD 1 million / sector if country flows are equally distributed across sectors.
  6. We use separate deflators for Africa’s exports and imports calculated by the IMF. The deflators used have 2000 as base year (2000 = 100).
  7. This (USD 53 million) threshold was chosen empirically to illustrate the spread of the corresponding distribution. USD 53 million is equivalent to 1 million / sector times 53 African countries (if the sectoral flows are equally distributed across countries)
  8. We use separate deflators for Africa’s exports and imports calculated by the IMF. The deflators used have 2000 as base year (2000 = 100).
  9. ComTrade has ten sectors : (0) food & live animals; (1) beverages and tobacco; (2) raw materials (excluding food and fuels); (3) mineral fuel and lubricants; (4) animal and vegetable oil, fat and wax; (5) chemical products; (6) manufactured goods; (7) machinery and transport equipment; (8) miscellaneous manufactured articles; (9) other refined commodities. Columns have been ranked by average degree of industrial sophistication.
  10. Stakeholder survey methodology: AEO country note authors on fact-finding missions for the economic assessment and macroeconomic forecast gather data from the National Statistical Office and conduct interviews with a range of government officials and representatives of private sector, civil society and international organisations. This year, a special survey was designed to capture and compare the results of interviews of African stakeholders on emerging partners’ activities. Responses were collected for 40 countries, representing 83% of the African population and 92% of the continent’s GDP. The survey uses qualitative measures on a 5-point scale aiming at providing subjective indicators. Where applicable, answers were weighted according to GDP and/or population. 
  11. As defined by Prahalad (2005): "those 4 billion people who live on less than $2 a day".
  12. FDI reflects the objective of obtaining a lasting interest by a resident entity in one economy in an entity resident in an economy other than that of the investor (OECD benchmark definition). The lasting interest implies the existence of a long-term relationship between the direct investor and the enterprise and a significant degree of influence on the management of the enterprise. For further details, refer to International Direct Investment Statistics, OECD.
  13. Governments provide official export credits through Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) in support of national exporters competing for overseas sales. ECAs provide credits to foreign buyers either directly or via private financial institutions benefiting from their insurance or guarantee cover. ECAs can be government institutions or private companies operating on behalf of the government (http://www.oecd.org/about/0,3347,en_2649_34169_1_1_1_1_1,00.html).
  14. Conversion from RMB to USD based on the official exchange rate provided by the World Bank’s WDI database.
  15. www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3746,en_2649_34621_44173540_1_1_1_1,00.html and www.iprcc.org/front/article/article-list.action
  16. An USD 8 million general hospital built four years ago by the China Overseas Engineering Group Company in Luanda had to evacuate 150 of their patients after cracks were found in the building.
  17. Capacity development on the basis of trilateral co-operation should not be limited to developing countries: as developed countries often pursue policies guided from a developed countries’ perspective that might hamper the development of developing countries, “there are requirements for sensitisation and capacity building in developed countries to give the developing country perspective to the stakeholders there“ (CUTS-CITEE 2005).
  18. Global value chains: “The full range of activities required to bring a product or service from conception through the intermediate phases of production to delivery to consumers and final disposal after use” (Kaplinsky and Morris, 2000); alternatively, “The process of ever-finer specialisation and geographic fragmentation of production, with the more labour intensive parts of production being transferred to developing countries” (Cattaneo, et al. 2010).
  19. The manufacturing here is defined as the aggregation of the following ComTrade sectors: (6) manufactured goods; (7) machinery and transport equipment; (8) miscellaneous manufactured articles; (9) other refined commodities. Columns have been ranked by average degree of industrial sophistication.
  20. SEZs are generally defined as geographically delimited areas administered by a single body, offering certain incentives (generally duty-free importing and streamlined customs procedures, for instance) to businesses which physically locate within the zone (Farole, 2008).
  21. The IMF has applied pressure for greater transparency in contracts, by converting repayments into monetary terms in such examples as the Nouakchott airport in Mauritania.
  22. The two initiatives signal a change in logic on debt. The HIPC initiative aimed to reduce debt to a bearable level, while the MDRI sought to end outstanding multilateral debt at 2003 or 2004, depending on the institution (Raffinot, 2008). For countries which benefited at a later stage from the HIPC initiative, the MDRI came into effect at once at the completion point. For details on the progress of African countries in the two debt reduction projects, see Raffinot and Dahoun (forthcoming) and www.africaneconomicoutlook.org .
  23. See IMF (2010a and b).
  24. According to the Ethiopian finance ministry’s statistics bulletin: Federal Republic of Ethiopia (2010). These figures do not appear to include debt owed to the Chinese firm, ZTE, of more than USD 1 billion. Two other loans at market rates were made by China in 2010 for almost USD 700 million. The financial conditions of these loans, which were part of packages, are not known.
  25. Following reforms agreed in November 2010, which should take effect in 2012, China will become the IMF’s third biggest shareholder (6.39% of the quotas). Brazil (2.31%), India (2.75%) and Russia (2.70%) join the top ten shareholders. Despite the reform, China, which is now the second biggest economy in the world ahead of Japan, still has fewer quotas than Japan, which has 6.46%. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pdfs/quota_tbl.pdf.
  26. The focus is thus on control. In that sense, it takes after the definition suggested by Whitfield (2008: 4) that sees ownership as the ‘degree of control recipient governments are able to secure over implemented policy outcomes’.
  27. Figure plots answers to the following question: To what extent is each local stakeholder below involved in the partnership with emerging partners?
  28. See Zimmermann and McDonnell (2008).
  29. “China, South Africa upgrade relations to ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’”, Xinhua News, 24 August 2010, news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-08/24/c_13460144.html
  30. Interim Economic Partnership Agreements with Middle-Income Countries have been concluded as "stepping stones" towards full EPAs, under the pressure of the expiration of a World Trade Organization waiver on the previous unilateral trade preferences, in December 2007.

Theme 2011

Experts from different fields analyse what measures should African governments take in order to engage effectively with emerging economic partners in Africa, such as China, India, Brasil or Turkey.

 

Tax expenditure surveys


Jean-Philippe Stijns, co-author of the "Public Resource Mobilisation" study, highlights Morocco's practices while observing their taxation policies.