Niger

Niger’s economy, totally dominated by an agricultural sector suffering from severe drought, shows real signs of weakness. As a result, economic growth in 2009 fell by 0.9%, after rising by 9.5% in 2008. The 2009/10 harvests look poor compared with 2008, particularly for millet and sorghum. Agricultural production plummeted in 2009 by 13.6%, after rising by 23.8% in 2008.

Growth in the mining sector, on the other hand, should experience moderate growth in 2009/10. Uranium and oil production should end the year in an upward trend due to the development of new sites by French and Chinese companies, in particular at Imouraren and Azelik. Extractive industries' production could grow by 2.2% in 2009, against 3.7% in 2008. Infrastructure projects launched in 2008, such as the building of a second bridge over the Niger River and the construction of the Kandadji dam, will continue in 2010. The public works and construction sector should grow at an exceptional 5.6% in 2009 against 4.8% in 2008.

The preparation of the national budget for 2010, within a macroeconomic framework based on three scenarios, fixed its main objectives: the control and improvement of public expenditure and the fight against corruption. The plan is to target in the budget the priority sectors in the strategy of accelerated development and poverty reduction (SDRP). In this context, education, health, the rural sector and infrastructure will benefit from significant budget allocations. Emphasis has been placed on the medium-term purging of all arrears of domestic payments, consistent with the plan to clear domestic arrears developed in late 2006 and finalised in 2007. The goal is to strengthen the administration’s human resources while keeping wage costs below 35% of fiscal resources – a limit fixed by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).

The country expects to achieve gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.2% in 2010 and reach 5.1% in 2011. That is conditional on a good harvest and a return to political stability that will bring back aid donors. A general upward trend in prices, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), continued in 2009 despite the price stability experienced at the beginning of the year following 2008’s successful harvest. This trend can be attributed to the increase in food prices, notably cereals and of condiments, whose prices increased 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, in 2009.

The inflation rate averaged 4.3% in 2009, a significant decline compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, this rate is still above the community norm, fixed at 3% by the WAEMU Commission, under its convergence criteria.

Politically, Niger has been in deep crisis since 4 August 2009 when, following the contested adoption of a new constitution, President Mamadou Tandja obtained a minimum three-year extension of his mandate that was due to expire on 22 December. Legislative elections took place October 20 following the dissolution of parliament by the head of state. They were won, to nobody's surprise, by the presidential party, the National Movement for Society of Development (MNSD). This led to the suspension of co-operation by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The European Union (EU) and other countries and development partners then suspended development aid, except for emergency food aid, pending a return to constitutional order. The MNSD also won the municipal elections at the end of December 2009. The elections were contested by the opposition, united as the Co-ordinated Democratic Forces for the Republic (CFDR), which claimed that the elections were “another step taken by the illegitimate and illegal regime of Mamadou Tandja”.

In the face of crisis, the MNSD and the opposition began direct negotiations mediated by ECOWAS. But this dialogue was suspended on 18 February 2010, the day of the military coup d’état led by Major Salou Djibou, commander of the Niamey garrison, who overthrew Mamadou Tandja. The military junta  announced the creation of the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD and the suspension of the Constitution of the VI^th Republic and dissolved all state institutions.

Salou Djibo has become head of state and government by military decree. According to the declarations of the junta, a body under the authority of the CSRD is expected to draft a new penal code as well as a new constitution that will be submitted to a referendum. The constitutional court and the Supreme Court will be replaced by a constitutional committee and State Court, and a National observatory of communication will be created. On February 23, Mahamadou Danda, a former minister, took over as prime minister.

The primary sector, essentially informal, is estimated to have registered a decline of 6.9%, after growing by 16.2% in 2008. The drop can be explained by a fall in agricultural production, which contracted from 29% of GDP in 2008 to 26.2% in 2009.

The reason for the fall in agricultural production was a 26.5% drop in winter crops, in particular cereals and legumes (cowpeas) accounting for 47.5% of total production. Other branches in the sector – livestock, forestry and fishing – performed well with respective growth rates of 4.4%, 3.3% and 19.4% in 2009. The primary sector constitutes the backbone of Niger’s economy, contributing 43.3% of GDP in 2009, down from 49.6% in 2008.

The growth rate of the livestock sector is estimated at 4.4% in 2009, against 4.2% in 2008.  Thanks to the abundant rainfall of the previous year, pasturage returned to normal, favouring the expansion of herds and keeping the rural population in its traditional way of life.

The secondary sector, dominated by extractive industries, energy and construction, expanded by an estimated 4.6% in 2009, compared to 3.7% in 2008. It is, nevertheless, the weak link of Niger’s economy, representing only 11% of GDP at factor cost in 2009. Energy production continued to expand in 2009, as did the construction sector.

The tertiary sector is estimated to make up 38.5% of GDP, recording a real growth rate of 4.6% in 2009, against 3.7% in 2008. The situation can be attributed to telephony – reaching 5.2% annual growth – and public services, at 6.5%.

In terms of demand, growth was affected by the trade deficit – 13.9% of GDP in 2009, as against 15.6% in 2008. 

Private final consumption, the largest GDP component in the economy, representing an estimated 74% share in 2009, declined by 3.8% in 2009, as against growth of 5.5% in 2008.

Final government consumption pursued its rhythm of growth, at an estimated rate of 4.8% in 2009, as against 6.8% in 2008. A critical phase is under way in mining, energy and construction projects. These include in particular the Imouraren, Teguida, Somaïr and Cominak projects for uranium mining; intensified oil exploration in the Agadem block; the construction of a refinery at Zinder; the building of a second bridge over the Niger River in Niamey; and the construction of a dam at Kandadji. Niger’s power company Nigelec (Société nigérienne d’électricité) is also building capacity. Its activities are linked to the dynamic telecommunications sector, and, in particular, continued investment by the telecommunications company Orange-Niger.

Growth in investment, at 2.7%, moderated in 2009, is the result of the weakness of private investment: up 1.3% in 2009, as against 22.5% in 2008. Public investment, on the other hand, is estimated at 7.5% in 2009 as against 6.7% in 2008, a consequence of the increase in public expenditure for equipment and continued investments in mineral exploration – notably uranium and oil – as well as energy and communications.

Exports and imports contributed, respectively, an estimated -0.5% and 0.7% to growth in 2009, a decline in the coverage of imports by exports to 49% in 2009, from 54.7% in 2008.

The trade balance remains in deficit. It deteriorated even further in 2009 because bad harvests and a severe food crisis weighed heavily on the economy. Despite its agricultural nature, Niger imports more than 60% of its food needs, the vital staple of rice in particular. In 2009, the trade deficit widened by about 220 billion CFA francs (XOF). Petroleum products represented 25.5% of total imports, followed by food staples. The balance of trade deficit can, therefore, be described as structural.

Budgetary revenues were about XOF 331.7 billion in 2009, against XOF 442 billion in 2008, a decline of 25%. Leaving aside exceptional revenues in 2008, they expanded by 4.3%.

Tax revenue accounts for more than 95% of budgetary revenue. The rest consists of non-tax revenue and special accounts revenue.

Tax revenue reached an estimated XOF 317.5 billion in 2009, as against 281.1 billion in 2008, an increase of 12.9%, due principally to the expansion of the tax base and to formalising the informal sector through several incentives, notably the reduction of tax rates, tax reconciliation and strengthening of the tax administration.

Non-tax revenue and revenue from special accounts amounted to XOF 14.2 billion in 2009, against 160.9 billion in 2008.

The non-tax revenue performance in 2008 can be explained as a windfall. The exceptional revenues were, in part, an advance on dividends paid by Areva (XOF 15 billion), from the sale of 100 tonnes of uranate (XOF 6 billion), and from oil-related transactions leading to the granting of an oil concession to China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation (CNODC) for a sum of 300 million dollars (USD), or XOF 123.4 billion. Other sources of non-tax revenue were dividends paid to the Treasury (XOF 6.7 billion) and other miscellaneous Treasury revenue (XOF 5.1 billion).

Grants will reach XOF 144.4 billion for 2009, against XOF 142 billion in 2008. This figure could be revised downward if the political situation does not improve, the more so since aid donors, in particular the EU, have conditioned further aid on the respect paid by various political actors to a roadmap for exiting from the political crisis.

Total expenditure and net lending are expected to increase from XOF 547.9 billion in 2008 (23.8% of GDP) to 598.9 billion in 2009 (24.9% of GDP), an expansion of 9.3%. They are composed of 46.5% of current expenditure and 50.2% of capital expenditures.

Current expenditure reached XOF 278.4 billion in 2009, versus 264.1 billion in 2008, an increase of 5.4%. These figures correspond respectively to 12.4% and 12.1% of GDP.

Capital expenditures were projected to reach XOF 288.7 billion in 2009, versus 247.1 billion in 2008, an expansion of 16.8%. This trend is the result of an increase in capital expenditures financed from own resources of 13.7%, and capital expenditures financed externally of 19.4%. In 2009, capital expenditures represented 12.5% of GDP versus 11.8% in 2008.

In 2009, estimates of state revenue and expenditure show a reported current deficit of 1.2% of GDP. The primary balance fell from 6.3% in 2008 to -1% in 2009. 

Developments in the monetary field reflected the low level of external financial support, the level of  payments for imports, the implementation of mining and oil projects, and the granting of new bank lending to economic sectors. They were affected by the easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which took place on 16 June 2009, rates being reduced by 50 basis points with the discount rate falling from 6.75% to 6.25% and the repo rate falling from 4.75% to 4.25%. The reserve requirement ratio for banks in Niger was, in turn, cut from 9.8% to 9%. Bank lending rate remained at between 7% and 17%.

Overall, there was a contraction in net foreign assets and an expansion of domestic credit and money supply compared with the first quarter of 2009. Year on year, the monetary aggregates show the same trend.

On 30 June 2009, net foreign assets of the banking system stood at XOF 247.2 billion, representing a decline of XOF 5.6 billion, or 2.2%, from the end of March 2009. This development followed the worsening of the net external position of banks of XOF 16.4 billion, a drop greater than the increase of XOF 10.8 billion in net foreign assets of the issuing institution.

Outstanding domestic loans increased by XOF 26.1 billion, or 13.3%, to XOF 222.5 billion at the end of June 2009. This increase resulted from a deterioration of the government's net position of XOF 18.6 billion and the increase in credit to the economy of XOF 7.5 billion.

Money supply expanded by XOF 39.2 billion compared with March 2009, standing at XOF 455.6 billion by the end of June 2009. According to the Central Bank this improvement in global liquidity originated from the consolidation of bank deposits of XOF 30.6 billion, or 11.9%, and the injection into circulation of XOF 8.5 billion, or 5.5%. The annual change in money supply saw an increase of XOF 87.9 billion, or 24%, an increase resulting from the growth in bank deposits of XOF 57.4 billion, or 24.9%, in relative value, and the fiduciary circulation of XOF 30.9 billion, or 23%.

In 2009, the trade deficit was expected to reach XOF 220 billion, a worsening of 17.8 billion, or 9.2%, compared to 2008. The increase in imports was greater than that of exports. As a share of GDP, the deficit stood at 6.4% in 2009.

Projected 2009 exports are valued at XOF 437 billion, an increase of 8.2% compared with 2008. This is due to the main exports: minerals, cattle, hides and skins, and legumes.

In regards to mining, 2009 uranium exports amounted to 3 200 tonnes, an increase of 2.3% compared with 2008, worth  XOF 200.1 billion compared with XOF 198.2 billion in 2008. Gold exports were an estimated 3 245.9 kilos in 2009, an increase of 8.7% compared with the 2008 volume, and a 35% increase in value to XOF 35.6 billion.

Cattle exports were expected to fall by 1% compared with 2008.  The reason for this reduction, aside from supply factors, is the continued fall in the value of the naira, the currency of Nigeria, which is the main importer of cattle from Niger; its decline has triggered a decrease in demand. By contrast, prices are estimated to have increased by 5.3% thanks to improvements in quality and supply. The value of exports of livestock will showed an estimated increase of 4.2% to XOF 52.2 billion in 2009.  Exports of hides and skins remained stable compared with 2008,  at XOF 22 billion.

Exports by volume of legumes (black-eyed peas) were expected to increase, in keeping with the exceptional growth in production in 2008. Exports are 123 904 tonnes, an increase of 48.6% compared to 2008. However, estimates based on data from the first seven months of 2009 suggest a price decline of around 5%. This trend reflects, in essence, ample supply and a return to normal after the record level reached in 2008 in an inflationary context.

The services balance worsened by an estimated XOF 744 billion (11.9% of GDP) because of the substantial increase in expenditures for services received, in particular those related to transport. The increase is related to extra imports of equipment and the financing of numerous studies and services in the construction sector carried out by the mining and oil companies that are beginning to operate in the country. Revenues are projected to increase by 5% thanks to a return to stability in the north of the country and the arrival of business travellers attracted by the dynamism of the above-mentioned sectors. 

The income balance is expected to worsen by XOF 34 billion (0.6% of GDP). The situation reflects the capital income paid out to foreign investors, combined with an increase in the interest owed to service the external debt.

The balance of current transfers, public and private, deteriorated in 2009, representing only 3.7% of GDP, against 4.1% in 2008. Budget support of XOF 86.6 billion is projected, versus XOF 35.6 billion in 2008.

These developments should result in a deficit in the current balance of XOF 374.8 billion in 2009, (XOF 325.9 billion in 2008), marking a decline of  XOF 48.9 billion. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit, excluding grants, should increase from 13.6% in 2008 to 15.2% in 2009.

The capital account and financial transactions amounted to XOF 379.8 billion in 2009, down 2.8% compared with 2008. The decline of XOF 109.7 billion in the capital balance was attributable to weak sales of mining permits, the amount having reached record levels in 2008. This drop is mitigated somewhat by an improvement of XOF 99 billion in financial transactions, reflecting the increase in public withdrawals (XOF 22.1 billion) and foreign direct investment (FDI) (XOF 59.1 billion).

At the end of June 2009, outstanding domestic and external public debt was estimated at XOF 573.5 billion, versus 481.3 billion at the end of December 2008, corresponding to a rising debt ratio of 2.5 percent.

The external component of this debt is estimated at XOF 504.9 billion, or 88% of total outstanding loans and 19.9% of GDP. The structure of the outstanding debt shows the preponderance is owed to multilateral creditors, representing 76.5% of external debt and 67.4% of the total outstanding.

The stock of external debt owed to bilateral creditors is estimated at 32.6% of external debt. It deals exclusively with non-member creditors of the Paris Club.

Servicing external debt cost an estimated XOF 33.8 billion in 2009, corresponding to 10.8% of budget revenues and 7% of the exports of goods and services.

Niger’s business climate does not, in general, favour the development of a competitive private sector.  There are many negative aspects, the most obvious of which relate to the perception of widespread corruption and the incoherence of rules and regulations and the way they are applied. But other problems include institutional weakness and problems of access to credit and property.

According to the World Bank’s 2010 Doing Business report, Niger ranks 174^th out of 183 countries, the same as in the previous year, proof that the business climate did not improve significantly, despite efforts undertaken to encourage entrepreneurship in the country. Niger has committed itself, in particular, to reducing the steps required to create a business: from 11, they were cut to eight at the end of 2008, then to four. It will be possible to handle the procedures all at once thanks to the establishment of a one-stop shop.

Generally speaking, the country seeks to develop all private sector economic activities: in particular, the production and transformation of goods and services. The goal is to make the private sector play a decisive role in economic growth and the fight against poverty.

After the privatisation of several national companies failed, such as the energy company Nigelec and the oil company Sonidep, the government has frozen the whole privatisation process of public enterprises, especially those considered strategic.  Other sectors, by contrast, have been opened up completely to competition. These include overland transport – often cited as a successful example of a sector that has been transformed – and mobile telephony.

Mobile telephony is dominated by four private operators: Telecel, Celtel, Sahelcom and Orange-Niger share a flourishing market of more than 6 million potential consumers. The sector is highly dynamic in terms of growth and in its contribution to GDP. It recorded a remarkable performance in 2009 with an annual growth rate of 5.2%.

There are two major oil sector projects.  One is the drilling project in the Agadem oil field which imposes significant obligations on the state of Niger. The other is the oil refinery at Zinder which requires large outlets for refined products at an affordable price in neighbouring countries. In the mining sector, the main focus is the uranium mine at Azelik where the state has kept a 33% stake in the operating company. This project requires the state to put up a third of investment.     

Reforms in the rural sector form part of the Strategy of Rural Development (SDR). The reorganisation of the ministry of rural development is under consideration. The plan is to implement a system to account for materials and the new procurement code; restructure the procurement centre of the National Board of Hydro-Agriculture (ONAH in the French acronym); carry on with the implementation of the guiding principles of the Rural Code; develop and implement a comprehensive water plan; and revise the law on co-operatives, taking into account the regional dimension.           

For the livestock sector, the objective is to modernise and commercialise the production, transport and commercialisation infrastructure, to develop and manage pastoral areas, to improve animal health and improve the epidemiological surveillance network. Strengthening prevention and management of  food crises is also on the agenda and to that end, the authorities are conducing investigations of food vulnerability and insecurity.  Other major projects include the construction of a dam at Kandadji in order to expand irrigated areas of rice and corn, the consolidation of cereal banks, the sale of basic foodstuffs at moderate prices and the free distribution of food to the poor.

Several major projects are underway to strengthen basic infrastructure which include construction of a second bridge over the Niger river and the dam at Kandadji which, in addition to promoting irrigated agriculture, should solve problems of water supply for the region around the capital, as well as for the uranium mines at Imouraren, Teguida, Somaïr et Cominak, the Agadem oil deposit and the Zinder oil refinery. Concessions for oil exploration have been granted to several companies, notably the Chinese CNODC. Other projects include the expansion of capacity by Nigelec and continued investments by the telecommunications company Orange-Niger.

Two government bodies are involved in public resource mobilisation: the General Tax Directorate (DGI), and the Directorate General of Customs (DGC). These institutions rely on public development aid.

Tax revenue was XOF 317.5 billion in 2009, versus 281.1 billion in 2008, an increase of 12.9%. This resulted from an increase in domestic revenue generated by taxes on income and profits and by taxes on goods and services. According to the forecast 2010 budget, tax revenue will increase by about XOF 77 billion.

Budgetary revenues represented 11.2% of GDP in 2009. They were made up of 95.7% in tax revenue and 4.3% in non-tax revenue and special accounts. Tax revenue is developing faster and more consistently than non-tax revenues.

These declined in 2009, decreasing by XOF 146.7 billion compared with 2008. This decrease is mainly attributable to the effects of the international financial and economic crisis, the relative lack of natural resources for generating revenue, and reduced foreign aid for development, especially after the political crisis affecting the country since August 2009. 

The tax burden has evolved steadily since the implementation of tax reforms by the DGI. It rose from 11% in 2004 to 11.7% in 2008 and should reach 13.5% in 2009. Nevertheless, the rate remains well below the norms suggested by WAEMU.

Direct taxes accounted for 30.7% of tax revenue. Their contribution has almost doubled since 2005 thanks to the increase in corporation tax which rose from XOF 16.25 billion in 2005 to 71.35 billion in 2009.

Direct taxes affect capital and income and are paid by taxpayers themselves. This group of taxes includes: schedular taxes on business profits, representing 35% of profit for companies and individuals; schedular tax on non-commercial profits, which is a deduction from sales and purchases from suppliers, customers or service providers; the flat tax on wages and salaries; property tax; tax on certain forms of overhead; the training levy; the patent contribution; tax on income from securities and movable capital; and the wage tax.

Indirect taxes declined in terms of their contribution to tax revenue from 24.5% in 2005 to 17.9% in 2008. They contributed 3.31% to GDP for 2008.

Indirect taxes are imposed on the use of capital or income. This category of tax includes mainly the value added tax (VAT) and excise duties. 

The strategy of mobilising revenue, and its detailed plan for the period 2009-12, are linked to the development of the strategy of accelerated development and poverty reduction (SDARP), a new five-year framework for economic, financial and social policy.

It has four objectives: to achieve control of the tax base; consolidate tax reform legislation; reduce tax evasion; and increase the efficiency of the tax system. Its implementation should increase the tax burden from 15.5% by 2012. At the end of this mobilisation, monthly DGI revenue – about XOF 15 billion - is expected to double in 2012.

The strategy is based on sectors with high added value in terms of tax and gives priority to business objectives that require support from technical and financial partners. The key objective is to achieve control of the tax base. In particular, the strategy includes better control of tax collection from large companies. This task is entrusted to the department of large enterprises in the DGI. The small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) department is responsible for collecting taxes from small businesses in the informal sector. Finally, the strategy envisages giving added resources to tax offices in the interior regions of the country.

The normative framework of tax law is based on the constitution of 9 August 1999. All aspects of taxation  are therefore the exclusive domain of this law, as well as the Tax and Territorial Regime of the Republic of Niger (RFDRN), which is a compilation of successive finance laws. They concern legislation after 1999, the exemption schemes – for mining codes and oil investments, for example – and the specific arrangements applicable to procurement of external funding.

Despite continued efforts to modernise and strengthen the tax administration, investors still consider it useful to have the financial obligations, such as fiscal responsibility, spelled out in individual enterprise agreements. They still regard the tax system as complex and inefficient in light of the multitude of taxes and fees it consisted of until recently.

In 2009, new tax measures were adopted. They include merging the tax on business profits into a single tax, combining land and property tax, the abolition of the flat tax on ownership of land and property, and the simplification of income tax and VAT.

In 2010, the authorities will pursue reforms to improve the business climate for local and foreign investors. Several changes should be noted. First, the marginal rate of the single point tax on salaries and wages is reduced by 10% – from 45% to 35%. The objective is to strengthen the purchasing power of workers and make it more attractive to create a business in the country. Then, the reimbursement of VAT credits to exporters will no longer be subject to a ceiling. The stamp duties that are part of the registration formalities for a tax identification number and the register of commerce and charges will be reduced. Access to property is also simplified by reducing by half the registration for right of building. Finally, the tax rate on profits is reduced by 35% to 30%.

The DGI is responsible for managing the tax system. Several services ensure the smooth running of tax services in such a vast territory. In 2005, a new organisation was established to improve the efficiency of tax collection. Thus, the office of the director general is responsible for administrative management, facilitation and coordination of overall activity. The central directorates perform technical tasks and work under the auspices of the director general. External services, known as operational services, consist of a department for large companies and a department for SMEs and small and medium-sized industries (SMIs)tax , each of which is made up of four divisions – including one each for the tax base, revenue, and a team that performs regular audits. External services also include regional offices, which rely on tax centres (base services), income taxes (collection services) and property matters services.

In terms of level of mobilisation of fiscal resources, Niger has a low ranking among the countries forming the WAEMU. This weakness may be explained by the economy’s limited openness to the outside world, minimal monetisation, and the low income of its population overall. It can also be explained by the non-taxation of agriculture, whose contribution to GDP reached 41.8% on average for the period 2004-08. Other explanations include the negative impact of the informal sector, which contributes over 40% of GDP, and institutional weakness, which characterise all bodies in Niger’s government. 

The military coup on 18 February 2010 led by Major Salou Djibo, was the direct consequence of the deterioration of the political situation since August 2009. Salou Djibo assumed the leadership of the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD) and was invested as interim head of state and government by military decree. The junta suspended the constitution of the VI^th Republic. The junta insisted it wanted to “restore constitutional order” and ruled out the possibility that military members of the CSRD might run for president.

The adoption of the referendum of 4 August 2009 tipped the country into instability by allowing President Mamadou Tandja to remain in power for at least three years beyond the end of his term in December 2009. The opposition, which had called for a boycott of the poll, denounced the move as a coup. The international community had expressed its concern after Mamadou Tandja had dissolved parliament and the constitutional court to achieve his goals.

Parliamentary elections were held in October 2009 and saw the ruling party, the National Movement for the Development Society (MNSD), win an overwhelming victory. The ballot was again boycotted by the opposition and condemned by the international community. The MNSD won 76 seats in the 113-member parliament, having occupied only 47 in the previous Assembly.

The European Commission, the United States and other countries sought talks with the authorities to find a solution to the crisis. They called for a timetable – under the threat of sanctions – for a resolution of the crisis. These pressures took concrete form when the European Union (EU) froze aid amounting to 458 million euros (EUR) for the period 2008-13. However, humanitarian aid is not affected by this measure. ECOWAS also suspended Niger from its ranks after the contested general election. 

The MNSD also won the majority of seats in municipal elections at the end of December 2009.  It took more than half (1 939) of the 3 759 council seats. The opposition, united as the Co-ordination of Democratic Forces for the Republic (CFDR), condemned the elections as  “another step taken by the illegitimate and illegal regime of Mamadou Tandja” to institutionalise his coup d'état.

During consultations with the EU in December 2009, the government agreed to establish an inclusive dialogue, covering all issues arising from the crisis, with all stakeholders in Niger, under the auspices of a mediator sent by ECOWAS, Abdul Salami Abubakar. The EU had, meanwhile, given Niger a four-month ultimatum to restore democracy, or face new political and financial sanctions.

It remains to be seen what decisions the junta will now take. In early March 2010 it seemed to want to send signs of goodwill to the international community but without fixing a date for the future presidential election it claims it wants to organise. 

The population was estimated in 2009 at 14.6 million, 50.3% of them women. The average age of the people of Niger is 20.4 years; half of them are less than 15 years old. According to demographic estimates, the population is growing at an annual rate of 3.3% per year, one of the highest on the planet. This substantial growth and the youthful profile of the population will place heavy demands on educational and health infrastructure as well as having a massive impact on job supply. Generally speaking, there are few schools and health facilities in rural areas, where 81% of Niger’s people live. Improving access to health and education remains critical to the development of the country.

Niger’s households are generally organised in extended families with large numbers of people – 6.4 people per household on average. Half have more than 6 people.

Unemployment was estimated at about 18% of the workforce in 2009, against 16% in 2005. It is worse in urban areas (21.4%) than in the countryside (16.7%). Women are most affected, with a rate of 30% versus 15% for men. The 15-29 age group recorded the highest rate (24%). In general, those with the lowest educational level are the most vulnerable to unemployment.

Children represent over 18% of the workforce. Poverty drives families to send children to work rather than school. However, the more children there are at work, the fewer there are at school to acquire job skills and the lower the skill levels of the workforce. These unskilled workers have almost no chance of finding more gainful employment so they, in turn, are likely to send their children to work as part of the vicious circle of poverty. It is estimated that 57.6% of children work when they are not at school.

According to data from the 2008 survey on household food vulnerability and security, 81.8% of villages surveyed had been affected by the increase in food prices over the previous 12 months. The pastoral and desert area was particularly affected by this phenomenon, with a rate of 88.2% versus 82.3% for the agricultural area.

Over 81% of villages surveyed experienced a food crisis during the year 2008/09. This proportion was more pronounced in peripheral areas of the capital, Niamey, and the cities of Zinder and Tillaberi.

Niger is at the bottom of the 2009 United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). The maternal mortality rate is 7.5 per thousand while infant mortality exceeds 81 per thousand – these rates are among the highest on the African continent. It seems unlikely that Niger will achieve the eight Millennium Development Goals by 2015. 

Malaria is the leading cause of death. The mortality rate associated with this endemic illness was 27 per thousand in 2008. Other water-borne diseases are also common.

Access to clean drinking water is limited, estimated at 55% in 2009 in urban areas but the supply of drinking water is much lower in rural areas. In general, the sanitation and hygiene situation is alarming. Large urban centres do not have a sewage disposal system,  to say nothing of central waste treatment.

The people of Niger, aged 15 and over, have a low literacy rate: 29%. This means that before that age, they did not have the opportunity to attend school or receive a basic education. However, there has been continuous improvement in recent years. The enrolment rate for 7-12 years is almost 57%. But the fact remains that the level of schooling in Niger, particularly in rural areas, is the lowest in the region with implications for employment. Lacking education, few of Niger’s citizens can aspire to any economic activity other than agriculture and its offshoots. Two in three people live in rural farming households.

Over 59% of Niger’s 14.6 million people (more than 8.5 million) live in poverty, more so in the countryside more than in the city – nearly two thirds of country dwellers are in poverty, as against just over one third of city dwellers. The population is concentrated in rural areas – nine out of 10 poor people live in a village.