Overview

Gabon's macroeconomic situation in 2009 was marked by gloom and uncertainty. President Omar Bongo died in June, and an early presidential election in August was won by his son, Ali Bongo. The climate of uncertainty was due to the international crisis, which compromised the economic recovery.

The crisis pushed the economy into recession, with a negative growth rate of -1% in 2009, against 2.3% growth in 2008. It also resulted in budget tightening, with strong negative impacts on the real economy, public finances and foreign trade. In 2009, the budget contracted sharply and the current account deteriorated, despite a slight easing of inflationary pressures. The money supply should rise slightly.

The principal macroeconomic and social indicators weakened in 2009, despite the country's wealth and potential. Gabon’s real problem remains the insufficient diversification of its economy.

The priorities are still private sector development and improved governance. In order to achieve higher growth rates, the government should speed up its infrastructure programme and promote agriculture, forestry, tourism and the environment.

The non-stop work day, an adjustment in working hours introduced in 2009, should stimulate market gardening by the Gabonese after office hours, thus reducing Gabon’s food dependence.

The recent elections demonstrated the urgent need to revise the constitution, as well as legislation and regulations, to help the country progress towards the rule of law.

On the social front, education policies and the implementation of the National Health Development Plan (PNDS) will bring improvements in the quality of education, particularly primary and vocational education, and in access to health care.

Figure 1: Real GDP growth and per capita GDP (USD/PPP at current prices)

Table 1: Macroeconomic indicators

 2008200920102011
Real GDP growth2.3-1.03.03.2
CPI inflation5.32.53.32.6
Budget balance % GDP12.16.98.59.2
Current account % GDP21.47.411.414.8

Recent Economic Developments and Prospects

Figure 2: GDP by sector, 2008 (percentage)

In 2009, the Gabonese economy, which remains poorly diversified, suffered from a contraction of foreign demand and a deterioration of the terms of trade. The growth rate, which had begun to slow in 2008 (2.3%), turned negative in 2009 (-1% instead of the 4% forecast).

Mining and oil still contribute a preponderant share of gross domestic product (GDP), at 60.7%. Apart from services (28.1%), all other sectors contribute only marginally. The primary sector (3.9% of GDP) has been superseded by the secondary sector (7.3%).

Oil production increased slightly (0.9%) over the previous year. This weak growth is due to the poor results of the oil companies Marathon, Vaalco and Total Gabon, whose turnover fell by 34.1%, 5.4% and 5%, respectively, following malfunctions in production plants and the unavailability of drilling rigs. Nonetheless, the use of new technology in old wells and extraction from marginal fields made profitable by the rise in oil prices in 2007-08 raised production from 11.8 to 11.9 million tonnes between 2008 and 2009. It is possible that this trend will continue in 2010.

Manganese production also fell (-40.6%), owing to the sluggish world steel market. Weak Chinese and European demand for tropical timber continues to affect log exports, causing them to contract by 19.4% in 2009. Log exports can be expected to decline further, as they are now restricted by new regulations.

In industry, activity fell in oil refining, rubber, wood and construction. Refining was disrupted in the first quarter, owing to a scheduled 15-day operational stoppage, followed by an employee strike. The unrest ensuing from protests against the results of the early election in August 2009 led to a strong drop (-39.2%) in the volume of crude oil processed. A recovery of the industrial sector is projected for 2010, with growth of 24.5%.

The GDP share of agriculture increased slightly owing to the renewed dynamism in market gardening, cocoa and coffee, following a restructuring of the sector. As the new government regards agriculture as a priority, the upward trend should continue in 2010 and 2011.

Despite a relative improvement over 2008, the forestry sector registered negative growth in 2009. Its GDP contribution remains extremely modest (1%). The poor performance of forestry is attributable to weak Asian demand and to the new requirement that a high proportion of timber be processed in Gabon. It is also due to the fact that owners sold off several timber-processing plants to Chinese buyers, a notable case being the sale of the Leroy & Fils plant in December 2009.

The secondary sector contributes 7.3% to GDP formation. The chemical, construction materials, food processing and timber industries generated the bulk of this contribution (3.4%), followed by electricity, water, oil refining and oil services (2.2%). Construction and civil engineering accounted for 1.7% of GDP, but contracted by 0.4% in 2009, versus growth of 10.9% in 2008. This decline is primarily attributable to difficulties in financing current contracts.

The tertiary sector contributed 28.1% of GDP in 2009. Public services generated the largest share of this contribution, followed by trade, transport and telecommunications.

Despite the recession in 2009, the economy is expected to pick up, with growth of 3% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011. The dip of 2009 was due to the decline or at best stagnation in the GDP contributions of all components of demand with respect to 2008: gross capital formation (-1.6 percentage points), consumption (+0.9 percentage points) and exports (-2.1 percentage points). The recovery expected for 2010 will be attributable to the positive contribution of investment (0.7 percentage points) as well as an increased contribution from exports (2 percentage points). This will continue in 2011, thanks to a recovery in consumption.

The GDP contribution of private consumption should fall in 2009 and 2010 (to 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points respectively), although a slight recovery is expected in 2011 (1.5 percentage points). This recovery will be driven by wage increases, the construction of cloverleaf interchanges on express roads and the limited but guaranteed financing of construction work on sporting facilities for the African Nations Cup, which will take place in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon in 2012.

Exceptionally, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was negative in 2009 (-0.3 percentage points), as volume exports fell considerably (contributing -2.1 percentage points to GDP) over 2008. Imports of goods were buoyed by investment programmes in both the oil and non-oil sectors; as a result, their GDP contribution increased to 1.8 percentage points in 2009.

Table 2: Demand composition

 20012008200920102011
Gross capital formation30.121.1-1.60.70.7
Gross capital formation - Public7.05.6-0.30.10.2
Gross capital formation - Private23.215.5-1.30.60.5
Consumption50.840.90.90.72.0
Consumption - Public15.511.00.10.30.5
Consumption - Private35.329.90.80.51.5
Solde extérieur19.038.0-0.31.60.5
External sector - Exports57.768.2-2.12.01.3
External sector - Imports-38.7-30.21.8-0.4-0.8
Real GDP growth rate---1.03.03.2

Macroeconomic Policy

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal policy in 2009 was not spared by the international crisis. The budget act estimated that resources would drop by 464 billion CFA francs BEAC (XAF) over 2008. Actual revenue fell to 30% of GDP in 2009, as against 32% in 2008. In contrast, total public expenditure increased to 23.1% of GDP (20.1% in 2008), owing to increases in current expenditure (17.6% of GDP), wages and salaries (6.3%), and purchases of goods and services (3.7%).

The budget estimates for the 2009 fiscal year, affected by the world economic crisis, the presidential funeral and the organisation of an election, should decline compared with 2008. Oil revenues will fall, despite the optimisation of tax revenue.

In 2009, public finance management was marked by a contraction of fiscal balances with respect to 2008. The decline in total revenue was due to the drop in oil revenue, which fell from 21.1% of GDP in 2008 to 17.7% in 2009 due to low prices on international markets and the sharp decline of exports.

The revenue situation was so troubling that the budget was implemented in stages in 2009. A first tranche of 30% was released in the first quarter and a second tranche of around 58% in the second quarter. A positive point, however, is that the efforts of the financial authorities collected XAF 790.1 billion of non-oil revenue, as against XAF 716.4 billion in 2008 (up 10.3%).

Expenditure excluding debt increased by 16.2% in 2009 to reach XAF 1 373.2 billion (XAF 1 181.9 billion in 2008). This spending growth resulted from a rise in both investment expenditure and other expenditure, the latter being due to the funeral of the first lady in March and that of President Omar Bongo in June, as well as to the organisation of early presidential elections in August 2009.

Total spending increased to 23.1% of GDP in 2009. Current expenditure rose to 17.6% of GDP, owing to the growth of wages and salaries (6.3% of GDP), purchases of goods and services (3.7% of GDP), and capital expenditure (5.3% of GDP). 

Gabon’s 2010 budget bill gives great prominence to structural projects, which account for XAF 544 billion (more than 60% of the amount earmarked for investment). This potential should make it possible to finance projects to rehabilitate some thoroughfares and to initiate the construction of new, sturdier roads.  

The primary surplus fell to 8.5% of GDP in 2009, from 13.9% in 2008, owing to the fall in oil revenue in the first quarter of 2009. The surplus could increase in 2010 (9.7% of GDP) if the projected slight rise in oil revenue (to 18.3% of GDP) is confirmed.

Table 3: Public finances

 2001200620072008200920102011
Total revenue and grants34.031.729.932.230.030.230.2
Tax revenue11.210.311.19.911.110.710.3
Oil revenue21.820.317.521.117.718.318.6
Other Revenues1.01.11.31.21.21.21.2
Total expenditure and net lending (a)30.722.521.320.123.121.721.0
Current expenditure24.917.716.615.117.616.616.0
Excluding interest16.115.414.413.416.015.415.0
Wages and salaries6.45.15.55.06.36.26.2
Goods and services5.13.33.53.23.73.43.3
Interest8.82.32.21.81.61.21.0
Capital expenditure4.74.84.54.65.35.04.8
Primary balance12.011.610.813.98.59.710.3
Overall balance3.29.28.612.16.98.59.2

Monetary Policy

Gabon is a member of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), and its monetary policy is set by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Since the end of 2008, this policy has focused on curbing the expansion of bank liquidity via a reduction of leading rates, consolidating the refinancing target and strengthening reserve requirements.

Bank liquidity was consolidated in 2009, thanks to the cash surpluses of companies exporting raw materials and to the government’s regular payment of domestic debt. In other words, the refinancing target was maintained at XAF 2 billion. Interest rate policy varied during the year, because of the recession. The bank penalty rate and the treasury advance rate were maintained above statutory limits (12% and 10% respectively). Other interest rates were reduced in order to stimulate the economy. The auction rate was cut from 5.25% to 4.75%, the repurchase rate from 7% to 6.25%, and the minimum deposit rate from 4.25% to 3.25%, while the minimum borrowing rate was eliminated. Likewise, the placement rate was reduced in order to keep drainage of bank liquidity to a low level.

In terms of reserve requirements, the BEAC adjusted reserve ratios and the interest paid on bank reserves, with the intention of restricting liquidity growth. The ratios applied to demand deposits were raised from 10.25% to 11.75% and those applied to term deposits from 8.25% to 9.25%. Since 2009, the interest paid on required reserves has been set at 0.15%, down from 0.35%.

The drop in food and hydrocarbon prices, added to the fall in global demand, reduced the inflation rate from 5.4% in 2008 to 2.5% in 2009 and a projected 3.3% in 2010. The slight rise in prices is due to the expansion of telecommunications (4.9%), increased prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other combustibles (4.2%) and for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4%), despite the 6.6% fall in transport prices and a 2.2% drop in those of clothing and shoes.

External Position

Gabon’s trade balance showed a surplus of 38.8% of GDP in 2009, against 49.7% in 2008. This performance reflects the collapse of exports and growth of imports, driven by steel products, and purchases of intermediate and capital goods by the construction and mining industries.

The slump in the trade balance is due to the decline in exports of oil (-49.1%) and manganese (-73.7%), as the crisis caused a contraction of international demand. A slight recovery of exports, coupled with a fall in the share of imports in 2010 and 2011, could improve the trade balance. The trade surplus should rise to 41.2% of GDP in 2010, driven by the projected increase in exports to 56% and 56.9% in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

The services balance improved, but remained in deficit in 2009. This was due to the performance of the “other insurance” (7.6%), travel and tourism (5.1%) and other services (18.3%) headings. The factor income deficit increased (-19.6% of GDP, as against -16.2% in 2008), owing to a 51.1% contraction of income from capital.

In 2009, the capital account enjoyed a favourable reversal of the previous trend, with a balance of XAF 195.5 billion, as against XAF 1 389 billion in 2008. This change is explained by a fall in outflows of private capital, supporting the pace of economic activity. The overall balance in 2009 showed a surplus of XAF 38.9 billion, an increase of 67%.

Under the current debt management strategy, which focuses on less costly debt based on issuance of government securities, a policy of prudent management of debt and reserves has proved necessary in Gabon. Debt servicing remains dominated by commitments relating to early repayment of debt to Paris Club members. As a result, in 2009, debt service fell from 26.1% of exports in 2008 to an estimated 7.1% due to the remarkable volume decline in the principal of foreign debt, in line with the plan to improve the debt profile. This downward trend in debt service is projected to continue in 2010 (5.6% of exports) and 2011 (5.9%). In 2009, the debt ratio was around 18.9%, compared with 14.6% in 2008.

Gabon was able to raise funds on the financial market in 2007 and 2008, enabling it to withdraw from the oversight of the Paris Club and to restructure its debt. Likewise, the preservation of a strategic position on international capital markets and the reduction of Gabon’s foreign debt prompted the government to set the level of new commitments at 10.2% of GDP in 2009, against 15.6% in 2008.

In order to ease the cash-flow problems of business in the difficult economic context, no less than XAF 412.6 billion was transferred to firms.

Table 4: Current account

Figure 3: Stock of total external debt (percentage of GDP) and debt service (percentage of exports of goods and services)

Structural Issues

Private Sector Development

Given the depletion of oil reserves and the associated drop in oil production, Gabon needs to initiate a process of economic diversification and explore all options for mobilising private investment.

Private sector development enjoys a favourable environment, with abundant untapped natural resources and guaranteed income transfers. It is also supported by the establishment of an agency to promote private investment, and the creation of a development and growth fund for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and small and medium industries (SMIs). Taking advantage of all these opportunities, a large number of foreign corporations have established and expanded their activities in Gabon. For the last ten years, Gabon’s private sector has included a number of Chinese companies operating in public works, forestry and mining, and many other foreign companies operating in oil, telecommunications (Zain-Gabon, MOOV, Maroc Telecom, Azur) and other sectors.

The non-oil private sector is not very dynamic, however, and makes only a small contribution to wealth creation.

In fact, there are a number of obstacles to the development of the business environment in Gabon: weak competition, since the largest companies are virtual monopolies; the reluctance of foreign-owned banks with excess liquidity to finance development projects; the relatively long time required to start a business (60 days minimum); and the size of the informal economy.

The World Bank Group has designated private sector development as a priority for its programme in Gabon. This programme is part of the second pillar of its country assistance strategy (CAS 2005-09) adopted in 2005, and it aims to render the business environment more favourable to sustainable private sector growth.

This World Bank support has three main thrusts: i) improving the business environment: production of an assessment report on the business environment and a report on the regulatory framework for infrastructure development in Gabon; ii) technical assistance to SME/SMIs: capacity building seminars for local entrepreneurs; and iii) direct financing: more than 50 million US dolllars (USD) in the oil, electricity and water sectors from the International Finance Corporation.

Several other international partners, such as the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Agence française de développement (AFD) and the European Union (EU), support private sector development in Gabon.

More recently, a series of measures has just been launched by the new authorities. They aim to stimulate private sector development in Gabon via the creation of a national oil company, the Gabon Oil Company, and by establishing an XAF 20 billion fund for the timber industry as well as tax incentives to accelerate local processing activities in the sector, which is the leading private employer in Gabon.

The Gabonese private sector could be strengthened in the near future by activities linked to pollution control. From July 2010, refuse collection companies will be obliged to recycle domestic waste and to install public toilets in all large urban centres.

Other Recent Developments

The international crisis highlighted the need to diversify the Gabonese economy, which remains overly dependent on hydrocarbons. Structural reforms will have to be accelerated in order to develop the private sector and further improve governance.

In 2009, the structural reform process had to take account of the recession. Nonetheless, Gabon plans to continue the programme of national economic diversification while pursuing more internationally focused objectives, such as the negotiation of economic partnership agreements and maintaining a presence on international capital markets.

To support non-oil growth, the government should ramp up its basic infrastructure development programme (roads, port and airport facilities, water and electricity networks). A real sectoral policy will also entail the promotion of agriculture and forestry. The implementing instruments of the forestry code have yet to be finalised. Control of the process of industrialising and commercialising the wood sector should be strengthened, as should fishing capacity. Tourism must be promoted, via a tourism development plan and by strengthening the sector’s legal and institutional framework. Lastly, environmental protection will require procedures for monitoring water and air quality in urban areas, the introduction of special taxation and improving public awareness to prevent and manage natural disasters.

Gabon is set to integrate further into CEMAC and to deepen its partnership with the EU. With the CEMAC zone, this entails reducing the common external tariff and establishing a regional market for treasury bonds. The elimination of tariff distortions and Gabon’s exports to the EU would both be facilitated if the EU were to introduce support measures to compensate for customs revenue losses resulting from tariff dismantling.

In addition, the social project of the new president, Ali Bongo, entitled “Facing the Future with Confidence” (L’Avenir en toute confiance), plans for the introduction of the non-stop work day. This measure calls for a shorter working day (7:30 am-3:30 pm), with a lunch break reduced to just 30 minutes. It is not an adjustment of official working hours, as the non-stop day remains an eight-hour day. Instructions for implementing this measure were communicated by the Minister of Labour and Employment to the heads of public services, employer organisations and unions as well as semi-public and private companies. The aim of the measure is to stimulate labour productivity while at the same time encouraging the Gabonese to devote themselves to agricultural tasks, in order to reduce Gabon’s dependence on increasingly costly food imports.

An expansion of agriculture can already be observed around large cities. This is particularly true of market gardening, which has a short growing season and lends itself well to the quality of soil in Gabon. This initiative will thus stimulate the emergence of a new class of farmers to meet the increasingly strong demand for food products. Such production should be subject to socially and economically acceptable methods. In this respect, certain conditions should be laid down to ensure optimal returns around cities: use of mineral fertilisers for proper management of soil fertility in relation to the availability of arable land; restoring soil fertility through the recycling of manure and agricultural waste; cultivation of legumes; and water management.

The initiative, supported by the Gabonese development institute (Institut gabonais d’appui au développement), nonetheless raises a considerable problem as to the ownership of land parcels in rural areas. The parliament has adopted new laws on agricultural policy and the agricultural investment code, which require the state to improve and develop concessions and open areas in order to render them easily farmable, then to divide them up as land titles. Ownership is obviously very important to farmers or large lessors, particularly banks: to gain access to bank loans, the form of security that works best in Gabon is the mortgage, but it is impossible to obtain a mortgage without a land deed, permit or duly registered decree of allocation.

Concerning public-private partnerships (PPP), a number of contracts between the government and firms may be reviewed in the light of problems and delays encountered in implementing them. The national power and water company SEEG, a subsidiary of the French group Veolia, stirred up dissatisfaction by not being able to meet demand for water and energy in the capital. Likewise, the delays in carrying out the Chinese project to mine the Belinga iron deposit has planted doubts about the viability of the project. The feasibility study of this mine was not submitted to the government until three years after the conclusion of the tender process; as a result, the Gabonese authorities decided to wait before ratifying the agreement on the Belinga mine signed in 2006, as this agreement lends itself to controversy. Since the Chinese consortium led by China National Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Corporation was not able to start work as expected in January 2010, officials in the Ministry of Mines have suggested that the agreement be reviewed, so as to be able to enter into a new agreement with the Brazilian firm Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the world leader in the sector. Whatever the outcome, there will be substantial problems involved in co-ordinating the various components of the project (mining, railways, energy and ports).

Public Resource Mobilisation

Resource mobilisation is a major concern for the Gabonese authorities in their quest for economic diversification. Oil’s contribution to growth is declining steadily. From over 50% in 2008, it dropped to 41.5% in 2009 and should remain stable at this level in 2010. This decline in the GDP share of oil justifies the search for substitute resources in the oil sector.

At the same time, the high level of taxation in Gabon raises the cost of production. Lighter and more efficient taxation could encourage investment and help combat quasi-taxation, tax evasion and tax avoidance. Optimum taxation should thus target three key objectives: improving customs and tax yields, identifying all other possible resources for the state and widening the tax base.

The first objective aims at improving the yield from tax headings other than mining and oil, including taxes on income and earnings, personal income tax and corporation tax. Personal income tax is applied to the earnings or turnover of sole proprietorships, to business and agricultural profits and to non-commercial professional earnings. It also applies to the members of general and non-trading partnerships that are not subject to corporation tax, as well as to property income, salaries, pensions, annuities and investment income earned by individuals in the fiscal year. The majority of taxpayers are thus subject to personal income tax, yet the GDP share of this tax has never reached 20%, and budget revenue forecasts for it have never reached XAF 70 billion. Corporation tax is applied to the profits of incorporated companies, as well as general and non-trading partnerships having opted for the corporate tax regime. Of almost 20 000 companies registered in Gabon, however, fewer than 15 000 are reportedly active. Forecasts for revenue from corporation tax have never reached XAF 100 billion.

Value added tax (VAT) is a general tax on spending applied to individuals and legal entities engaged in economic activity, with turnover of at least XAF 60 million for services, XAF 80 million for most businesses and XAF 500 million for other economic activities (transportation, driving schools, restaurants, etc.). Although almost 1 600 companies and individuals are subject to VAT, its yield barely exceeds XAF 100 billion. Revenue from VAT can be increased by carrying out an exhaustive survey of those liable for this tax and by exerting constant pressure on the ground via an increase in the number of tax inspectors.

There is a wide range of other taxes, duties and fees for which it is difficult to set precise targets. It should be noted, however, that certain taxes could generate substantial revenue for the central government budget or local communities. This is the case for property taxes, transfer taxes, excise taxes, special fuel taxes and taxes on income from securities.

To identify all public resources, both the tax and non-tax administrations could be called on, the latter being given a fiscal mission that consists of establishing, liquidating and collecting fees, taxes, fines, penalties and tickets for minor infractions in lieu of the tax administration. It is surprising, to say the least, that all resources collected by these departments are not transferred to the Treasury, which contravenes the “single till principle (unicité de caisse). An in-depth study could reveal the amounts actually collected.

To widen the tax base, it would be helpful to reorganise the tax administration, and in particular to create a general tax directorate, bringing together under one hat the general directorate of direct and indirect taxes, the general directorate for registration and stamp duty, the general directorate of land registration and topographical works, and the land ownership and mortgage registry. This large department could centralise land and tax information at every level and be open to external non-tax specialist skills. However, it will be necessary to recruit and train staff to make the most of this structure and to render it more efficient.

Since taxation is constantly evolving, a training course to help tax officers master the techniques of the tax base and tax liquidation would be helpful, as tax yields depend on the way in which officers manage taxes and the various stages of monitoring and taxing an individual. The existing tax system also needs to be simplified, for example by eliminating existing quasi-fiscal levies such as the import turnover tax, domestic turnover tax, transaction taxes, fixed-rate payments, vocational training taxes and the tax on works of art. It could also be worthwhile to investigate whether certain special arrangements set out in the investment charter should be maintained: at present, mining and oil companies in general are not subject to the ordinary taxation applied to all companies operating in Gabon. A detailed study of the situation could lead to the elimination of tax exemptions so as to avoid having a multi-tiered taxation system.

The informal sector is an important part of the Gabonese economy. Instead of fighting against this sector, which provides jobs, it would be better to control and discipline it, making it subject to the same tax obligations as the formal economy. Tax investigation should be made systematic. Whether it takes the form of formal audits, document verification or checking of accounts, this remains the most effective means of combating tax evasion and avoidance.

Political Context

The year 2009 was marked by the death of first lady Edith Lucie Bongo in March, followed by that of President Omar Bongo in June. An early presidential election was organised in August, won by Ali Bongo, the son of Omar Bongo, with more than 41% of the vote. The Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), in power since 1968, thus remains the ruling party. The opposition, which is not unified, contested the election results. Following the vote, serious disturbances flared in Port-Gentil, the country’s economic capital, and a curfew declared in August was lifted only in January 2010.

This presidential election revealed the problems of reaching a consensus within the ruling party, as a number of party members announced their candidacies for the presidency, only to be thrown out of the PDG. Thus, despite its victory, the PDG emerged weakened from this episode. The election also revealed several constitutional issues. In the absence of implementing legislation that sets out its content and scope, Article 13 of the constitution contains several loopholes. It states that “in the event of a power vacancy, the presidential election will take place, except in case of force majeure declared by the Constitutional Court, within at most 30 days after the opening of the vacancy." This time frame is both short and unrealistic, as it fails to take into account the time required to draw up electoral lists, distribute voter cards, declare candidacies, designate voting centres, etc.

Similarly, the procedures for revising the voter list for the early presidential election became the subject of diverse interpretations. This could have provoked a serious constitutional crisis. The president of the Constitutional Court has therefore requested a revision of the constitution, the electoral code and laws governing the organisation of the multiparty system. These modifications should address the concern for harmonising the provisions of legislative texts with those of the basic law of the land, in the context of the development of the rule of law in Gabon.

Social Context and Human Resource Development

Social sector demand is higher each year, with a poverty rate of 35% and an unemployment rate of 25%, according to the General Statistics Directorate. The government’s halfhearted response to these problems has resulted in increasingly frequent strikes. The country’s position in the Human Development Index, at 103rd place out of 177 countries, remains disturbingly low, while its ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business report, at 158th place out of 183 countries, could also be improved. The implementation of the new investment budget could contribute to this.

Education policy aims at increasing intake capacity at the primary and secondary levels, with a view to reaching student-teacher ratios of at most 30 to 40 students per class, instead of the current 150. Science education is to be reorganised, with some schools specialising in scientific subjects. Vocational and technical training should be improved, with an increase in available places.

Education is compulsory in Gabon from ages 6 to 16. The enrolment rate in 2009 was over 96%. However, 22% of the population declares that it is “without qualifications” and almost half fail to continue after primary school, while 18% continue after junior secondary school and only 6% complete the entire secondary cycle.

In higher education, the introduction of the Licence, Master, Doctorat (bachelor, master’s, doctorate) system in 2007/08 should lead to a sharper focus on occupational qualifications and quicker integration into working life. However, the implementation of this system is hampered by financing constraints. Each student on a master’s course costs the university XAF 2.5-3 million. To have more than 20 master’s candidates, it thus needs over XAF 60 million in funding. The government cannot underwrite these costs, but it has not permitted the introduction of tuition fees commensurate with the cost of such courses. The education sector was allocated XAF 38 billion in 2009.

Health, which is considered a priority, was allocated XAF 69 billion in the new investment budget, but expectations in terms of proximity to medical facilities, quality of services and access to treatment are too high.

In addition, consideration needs to be given to technical equipment, treatment and medication, which should benefit from these resources. At the same time, in addition to the gradual implementation of the National Health Development Plan, the focus seems to be placed on three principal measures. The first entails continuing with free health care in the emergency units, labour wards, laboratories and radiology department of the Libreville General Hospital (CHL). The second concerns the CHL gradually taking on the treatment of chronic diseases requiring costly treatment. The third aims at reforming the National School for Health and Social Affairs (ENASS), with a view to taking up new medical technologies.

Because of the recession some measures were taken to protect household purchasing power. Public sector wages and salaries will be supplemented by increases in back-to-school allowances, transport aid and certain bonuses for health and education employees. The minimum wage was increased to XAF 150 000. This measure, which has not been agreed by trade unions, is considered unfair in the sense that it affects only people paid less than XAF 150 000. In addition, public employees are to receive a one-off bonus financed by savings realised through the elimination of numerous positions in the higher ranks of the bureaucracy and the savings expected from the current cleanup of civil service rolls.

According to the programme to combat sexually transmitted diseases and AIDS (PLIST), the HIV/AIDS pandemic is clearly easing. Gabon has around 52 000 infected people, and a survey was launched in 2010 to obtain current data for 2009. Although the upward trend has not been reversed, the epidemic is no longer growing as it once did. According to PLIST, sex workers are one of the hardest-hit groups, with a prevalence rate of 20%, four times the rate for the general population. The prevalence rate in the army is 4.2%, while that for young people in school is 1.7%.

Voluntary screening is the key part of the national strategy to combat HIV/AIDS over the 2008-12 period. The test is free for pregnant women, university students, children under 15, retired people and the destitute. Until 2001, the country had only one AIDS treatment centre, the outpatient treatment centre (CTA) of Libreville. There are now ten CTAs, or one per province; two of them are in Estuaire province, where the capital is located. In addition to the CTAs, Gabon has five treatment centres, annexed to general hospitals, for patients ill with the disease. Around 20 000 patients are treated in all of these centres.

In addition, 8 500 people receive antiretroviral treatment. Each year on average 1 000 new cases are admitted for HIV/AIDS treatment. This costs the government so much that a national solidarity fund was established to finance treatment for those suffering from HIV/AIDS, with an annual budget of XAF 1.5 billion. Gabon also receives support from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

Housing is a major concern. The government is to devote XAF 40 billion to this budget line in 2010 to improve living conditions. However, it has always promised to support access to home ownership by developing land and dividing it into parcels and through opportunities given to economic agents seeking to invest in these sectors. Each year, some 5 000 families are without decent housing. The funding allocated for this purpose has not resulted in concrete achievements. As a result, potential investors faced with a largely corrupt bureaucracy have ended up by withdrawing.

Table 5: Summary results

 20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Real GDP growth (incl.Stk)2.1-0.32.51.43.01.25.62.3-1.03.03.2
CPI inflation2.10.22.10.4-0.2-1.45.05.32.53.32.6
GDP (scaled $)3454.83445.03530.73578.43686.53730.73939.74030.33992.74104.44225.9
RGDP4.74.96.17.28.79.611.414.411.413.214.4
Exchange rate732.5696.0580.6528.0527.8522.6479.2448.7471.4440.8440.8

Figure 1: Real GDP growth and per capita GDP (USD/PPP at current prices)

Table 1: Macroeconomic indicators

 2008200920102011
Real GDP growth2.3-1.03.03.2
CPI inflation5.32.53.32.6
Budget balance % GDP12.16.98.59.2
Current account % GDP21.47.411.414.8

Figure 2: GDP by sector, 2008 (percentage)

Table 2: Demand composition

 20012008200920102011
Gross capital formation30.121.1-1.60.70.7
Gross capital formation - Public7.05.6-0.30.10.2
Gross capital formation - Private23.215.5-1.30.60.5
Consumption50.840.90.90.72.0
Consumption - Public15.511.00.10.30.5
Consumption - Private35.329.90.80.51.5
Solde extérieur19.038.0-0.31.60.5
External sector - Exports57.768.2-2.12.01.3
External sector - Imports-38.7-30.21.8-0.4-0.8
Real GDP growth rate---1.03.03.2

Table 3: Public finances

 2001200620072008200920102011
Total revenue and grants34.031.729.932.230.030.230.2
Tax revenue11.210.311.19.911.110.710.3
Oil revenue21.820.317.521.117.718.318.6
Other Revenues1.01.11.31.21.21.21.2
Total expenditure and net lending (a)30.722.521.320.123.121.721.0
Current expenditure24.917.716.615.117.616.616.0
Excluding interest16.115.414.413.416.015.415.0
Wages and salaries6.45.15.55.06.36.26.2
Goods and services5.13.33.53.23.73.43.3
Interest8.82.32.21.81.61.21.0
Capital expenditure4.74.84.54.65.35.04.8
Primary balance12.011.610.813.98.59.710.3
Overall balance3.29.28.612.16.98.59.2

Table 4: Current account

Figure 3: Stock of total external debt (percentage of GDP) and debt service (percentage of exports of goods and services)

Table 5: Summary results

 20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
Real GDP growth (incl.Stk)2.1-0.32.51.43.01.25.62.3-1.03.03.2
CPI inflation2.10.22.10.4-0.2-1.45.05.32.53.32.6
GDP (scaled $)3454.83445.03530.73578.43686.53730.73939.74030.33992.74104.44225.9
RGDP4.74.96.17.28.79.611.414.411.413.214.4
Exchange rate732.5696.0580.6528.0527.8522.6479.2448.7471.4440.8440.8

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